Scientific papers

Myles Allen, Do it yourself climate prediction, Nature, 401, p.642, October 1999.

Myles Allen, Peter Stott, John Mitchell, Reiner Schnur & Thomas Delworth, Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change, Nature, 407, pp.617-620, October 2000.

Reto Knutti, Thomas Stocker, Fortunat Joos & Gian-Kasper Plattner, Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles, Nature 416, 18 April 2002.

Peter Stott & Jamie Kettleborough, Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise, Nature, 416, pp.719-723, 18 April 2002.

Myles Allen, William Ingram & David Stainforth, Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature Insight article, Nature, 419, pp.224-232, 12 September 2002.

Mat Collins, Dave Frame, Bablu Sinha & Chris Wilson, How far ahead could we predict El Nino? Geophysical Research Letters, 29, no. 10, 1492, 31 May 2002.

Mat Collins, Climate Predictability on Interannual to Decadal Time Scales: The Initial Value Problem, Climate Dynamics, 19, 8, pp. 671 - 692, 18 March 2002.

Mat Collins & Myles Allen, Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability, Journal of Climate, 15, no 21, pp.3104-3109, November 2002.

Myles Allen, Jamie Kettleborough and David Stainforth, Model Error in Weather and Climate Forecasting, from the Proceedings of the 2002 ECMWF Predictability Seminar, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK, pp. 275-294

Myles Allen, Liability for climate change, Nature, 421, pp.891-892, February 2003.

Myles Allen, Possible or probable?, Nature, 425, p.242, September 2003. Click here for Portuguese translation of this article.

Jim Hansen, Myles Allen, David Stainforth, Andy Heaps and Peter Stott, Casino-21: Climate Simulation of the 21st Century, World Resource Review, 13, 2, pp.187-189, 2001.

Arno Scharl (Ed.), Environmental Online Communication, Advanced Information and Knowledge Processing Series, (c)2004 Springer London, ISBN: 1-85233-783-4, Chapter 12 "climateprediction.net: a global community for research in climate physics"

J.P.R.B Walton, D. Frame & D.A. Stainforth, Visualization For Public-Resource Climate Modelling, Data Visualization 2004 (O. Deussen, C. Hansen, D. Keim & D. Saupe, eds.) , pp.103-108, Eurographics Association, 2004.

James Murphy, David Sexton, David Barnett, Gareth Jones, Mark Webb, Matthew Collins & David Stainforth, Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations, Nature, 430, pp.768-772, August 2004.

Peter Stott, Daithi Stone & Myles Allen, Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003, Nature, 432, pp.610-614, December 2004.

Myles Allen & Richard Lord, The Blame Game - who will pay for the damaging consequences of climate change?, Nature, 432, pp.551-552, December 2004.

D. A. Stainforth, T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. Martin, J. M. Murphy, C. Piani, D. Sexton, L. A. Smith, R. A. Spicer, A. J. Thorpe & M. R. Allen, Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases, Nature, 433, pp.403-406, January 2005.

D. J. Frame, B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, and M. R. Allen, Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions, Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L09702, May 2005.

C. Piani, D. J. Frame, D. A. Stainforth, and M. R. Allen, Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations, Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L23825, December 2005.

G.C. Hegerl, T.J. Crowley, W.T. Hyde and D. J. Frame, Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries, Nature, 440, p1029-1032, April 2006.

P. Pall, M.R. Allen, D.A. Stone, Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO₂ warming. Climate Dynamics, 23:4, p. 351-363, August 2006.

Knutti, R., Meehl G.A., Allen M.R. and Stainforth D.A. (2006) Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature, Journal of Climate, 19 (17), 4224-4233.

M. Collins and S. Knight (Eds.), (2007) Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, Print: 1364-503X, Online: 1471-2962.

H.J. Schellnhuber (Chief Ed.), W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley, and G. Yohe (Eds.) Avoiding dangerous climate change, Cambridge University Press. Please note chapters 29 (Observational constraints on climate change) and 33 (Risks associate with stabilisation scenarios and uncertainty in regional and global climate change impacts).

Forest C., Allen M.R., Sokolov A., and Stone P., Constraining climate model properties using optimal fingerprint detection methods, Climate Dynamics, 18, pp.277-295, DOI 10.1007/s003820100175.

Knight C.G., Knight S.H.E., Massey N., Aina T., Christensen C., Frame D.J., Kettleborough J.A., Martin A., Pascoe S., Sanderson B., Stainforth D.A., and Allen M.R., Association of parameter, software and hardware variation with large scale behavior across 57,000 climate models, PNAS, July 2007.

Frame D., Faull N., Joshi M., and Allen M.R., Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2007 (published online).

M. Allen and D. Frame, Call Off the Quest, Science, October 2007.

New M., Lopez, A., Dessai, S., and Wilby R. (2007) Challenges in using probabilistic climate change information for impact assessments: an example from the water sector. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, A365,2117-2131.

Sanderson B., Piani C., Ingram W.J., Stone D.A., and Allen M.R., (Feb 2008), Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations, Climate Dynamics, 30, 175-190.

B. Sanderson, R. Knutti, T. Aina, C. Christensen, N. Faull, D. Frame, W. Ingram, C. Piani, D. Stainforth, D. Stone and M. Allen, Constraints on Model Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Role of Subgrid-Scale Processes, Journal of Climate, June 2008.

Knutti, R., Krähenmann S., Frame D.J., and Allen M.R., 2008, Comment on 'Heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth's climate system' by S. E. Schwartz, JGR, 113, D15103, doi:10.1029/2007JD009473.

Sanderson, B., Knutti R., Aina T., Christensen C., Faull N., Frame D.J., Ingram W.J., Piani C., Stainforth D.A., Stone D.A., and Allen M.R., (2008) Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the role of subgrid scale processes, Journal of Climate, 21, 2384-2400.

Lopez A., Fung F., New M., Watts G., Weston A., Wilby R. (2009), From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts: a case study of water resource management in the South West of England, Water Resour. Res., 45, W08419.

Stone D.A., Allen M.R., Stott P.A., Pall P., Min S.-K., Nozawa T. and Yukimoto S. (2009) The detection and attribution of human influence on climate, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 34, 1-16.

Ackerley D., Highwood E.J., and Frame D.J., Quantifying the effects of perturbing the physics of an interactive sulfur scheme using an ensemble of GCMs on the climateprediction.net platform, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D01203, January 2009.

Allen M.R., Frame D., and Manson C., The case for mandatory sequestration, Nature Geoscience 2, 813 - 814, December 2009.

Fowler H., Cooley D., Sain S., and Thurston M., (2010) Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment, Extremes, doi:10.1007/s10687-010-0101-y.

Ricke, K.L., Morgan, M. Granger, and Allen, M.R. (2010) Regional climate response to solar-radiation management. Nature Geoscience doi: 10.1038/ngeo915.

Sanderson, B.M., Shell, K.M., and Ingram, W. (Dec. 2010), Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs, Climate Dynamics, 35, 1219-1236.

Pall, P., Aina, T., Stone, D.A., Stott, P.A., Nozawa, T., Hilberts, A.G.J., Lohmann, D., and Allen, M.R., (2011) Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in Autumn 2000, Nature, 470, 382-385.

Kay, A. L., S. M. Crooks, P. Pall, and Stone, D. A. 2011, Attribution of Autumn/Winter 2000 flood risk in England to anthropogenic climate change: a catchment-based study, Journal of Hydrology, 406, 97-112.

K.L. Ricke, D.J. Rowlands, W.J. Ingram, D.W. Keith and M. Granger Morgan (2011) Effectiveness of stratospheric solar-radiation management as a function of climate sensitivity, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038.