New Project with Climate Central: World Weather Attribution
We are pleased to announce that we are starting a new collaborative project with Climate Central that aims to demonstrate the feasibility of near real-time attribution studies for extreme weather events around the world.
Following the success of our recent weather@home attribution studies, which looked at whether the risk of recent extreme weather events had been changed by climate change or not, we are now planning a more ambitious project to use seasonal forecasts to compare extreme weather events, as they happen, with the “world that might have been without climate change”.
This means we will be able to say, almost in real-time, if the risk of an extreme weather event has been changed by climate change.
The types of events that we will be looking at include:
- Sea level rise contribution to storm surge (for hurricanes, typhoons, nor’easters, coastal storms)
- Extreme heat events
- Heavy rainfall events/flooding
The goal of this project is to build the capacity to identify 1 in 50-year and 1 in 100-year events around the world and determine whether or not climate change increased the likelihood of that event.
We are partnering with Climate Central, an independent organisation of leading scientists and journalists researching and reporting the facts about our changing climate and its impact on the public. Climate Central surveys and conducts scientific research on climate change and informs the public of key findings. Its scientists publish and its journalists report on climate science, energy, sea level rise, wildfires, drought, and related topics. More information is available at http://www.climatecentral.org.
Climate Central currently provides weekly, localised climate content to more than 120 local weather forecasters across the United States. The primary goal of this project is to localise and contextualise extreme weather events as they relate to climate change.
Right now, it is very difficult for weather forecasters to quickly assess the frequency of a given hot day or heavy downpour as it is occurring. Was it a 1 in 10-year event or was it a 1 in 50-year event? Local weather forecasters need more information about this and this attribution initiative will address this need.
We are currently recruiting 2 new postdoctoral roles in Oxford for this project:
- Computational Model Development for Extreme Weather Event Attribution
- Analysis and Interpretation of Large Model Ensembles for Extreme Weather Event Attribution
Once these posts are in place, climateprediction.net volunteers can expect to see the first model test runs for this project around this time next year.« Back to News