Quantifying the effects of perturbing the physics of an interactive sulfur scheme using an ensemble of GCMs on the climateprediction.net platform
D. Ackerley, E.J. Highwood & D.J. Frame
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 114, D01203, January 2009. Quantifying the effects of perturbing the physics of an interactive sulfur scheme using an ensemble of GCMs on the climateprediction.net platform abstract from Wiley Online Library.
Observational constraints on future climate: distinguishing robust from model-dependent statements of uncertainty in climate forecasting
Extended abstract of a talk for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Workshop on Uncertainty and Risk, Maynooth, Ireland, 12 to 14 May, 2004. Download pdf (140 KB)
The case for mandatory sequestration
M.R. Allen, D. Frame & C. Manson
Nature Geoscience 2, 813–814, December 2009. The case for mandatory sequestration abstract on Nature Geoscience website.
Call off the quest
M.R. Allen & D. Frame
Science, 26, 582–583, October 2007. Doi:10.1126/science.1149988. Download pdf (150 KB)
Model error in weather and climate forecasting
M.R. Allen, J. Kettleborough & D. Stainforth
Proceedings of the 2002 ECMWF Predictability Seminar, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK, 275–294. Download pdf (120 KB)
Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
M.R. Allen, W. Ingram & D. Stainforth
Nature Insight article, Nature, 419, 224–232, 12 September 2002. Download pdf (210 KB)
Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change
M.R. Allen, P. Stott, J. Mitchell, R. Schnur & T. Delworth
Nature, 407, 617–620, October 2000. Download pdf (130 KB)
Do it yourself climate prediction
Nature, 401, 642, October 1999. Download pdf (50 KB)
Liability for climate change
Nature, 421, 891–892, February 2003. Liability for climate change (140 KB)
The Blame Game – who will pay for the damaging consequences of climate change?
M.R. Allen & R. Lord
Nature, 432, 551–552, December 2004. Download pdf (290 KB)
Climate predictability on Interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem
Climate Dynamics, 19 (8), 671–692, 18 March 2002. Download pdf (1.8 MB)
Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 365, 1471–2962, 2007. Download pdf (340 KB)
Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability
M. Collins & M.R. Allen
Journal of Climate, 15 (21), 3104–3109, November 2002. Download pdf (140 KB)
How far ahead could we predict El Nino?
M. Collins, D. Frame, B. Sinha & C. Wilson
Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 10:1492, 31 May 2002. Download pdf (180 KB)
Constraining climate model properties using optimal fingerprint detection methods
C. Forest, M.R. Allen, A. Sokolov & P. Stone
Climate Dynamics, 18, 277–295, 2001. Doi 10.1007/s003820100175. Constraining climate model properties using optimal fingerprint detection methods abstract on Springer Link website.
Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment
H. Fowler, D. Cooley, S. Sain & M. Thurston
Extremes, 13 (2) 241–267, 2010. Doi:10.1007/s10687-010-0101-y. Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment abstract on Springer Link website.
Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems
D. Frame, N. Faull, M. Joshi & M.R. Allen
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 15 August 2007. Doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2069. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems on Royal Society website.
Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions
D. J. Frame, B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, & M. R. Allen
Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L09702, May 2005. Download pdf (440 KB)
Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events
A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00034.1