Model error in weather and climate forecasting

Myles Allen

Presentation to Reading University, May 2005.
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Probability in attributing and predicting climate change

Myles Allen

British Council, Leipzig, April 2005.
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Human influence on weather risk: the 2003 European heat wave

Myles Allen

COP10, Buenos Aires, December, 2004.
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Observational constraints on future climate: distinguishing robust from model-dependent statements of uncertainty in climate forecasting

Myles Allen

Extended abstract of a talk for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Workshop on Uncertainty and Risk, Maynooth, Ireland, 12 to 14 May, 2004. Download pdf (140 KB)

From the sun to the earth: climate 1879 to 2129

Myles Allen

Presentation at Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford, July 2004.
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The spectre of liability

Myles Allen

Talk at the Climate Change Solutions meeting, Birmingham, May 2005.
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Attribution of climate change: the spectre of liability

Myles Allen

Presentation to Pretorial Meeting, October 2005.
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Energy and climate: understanding climate change

Myles Allen

Saïd Business School, Oxford, January 2008.
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What can be said about future climate? Quantifying uncertainty in multi-decade climate forecasting

Myles Allen

Harvard University, February 2008.
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A North African perspective on climate change

Myles Allen

October 2007.
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What can be said about 21st century climate?

Myles Allen

June 2007.
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Puzzles arising from

Myles Allen

Newcastle, March 2006.
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Probability and climate change

Myles Allen

Department of Trade and Industry UK/Russia Climate Workshop, October, 2003.
Download pdf (1.9 MB)
Russian version also available as a presentation file (ppt, 1.9 MB)

How can we (in)validate a probabilistic forecast?

Myles Allen

Talk at the European Geophysical Society, Nice, April 2003.
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Model error in weather and climate forecasting

M.R. Allen, J. Kettleborough & D. Stainforth

Proceedings of the 2002 ECMWF Predictability Seminar, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK, 275–294. Download pdf (120 KB)

Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle

M.R. Allen, W. Ingram & D. Stainforth

Nature Insight article, Nature, 419, 224–232, 12 September 2002. Download pdf (210 KB)

Do it yourself climate prediction

M. Allen

Nature, 401, 642, October 1999. Download pdf (50 KB)

Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change

M.R. Allen, P. Stott, J. Mitchell, R. Schnur & T. Delworth

Nature, 407, 617–620, October 2000. Download pdf (130 KB)