Do it yourself climate prediction

M. Allen

Nature, 401, 642, October 1999. Download pdf (50 KB)

Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change

M.R. Allen, P. Stott, J. Mitchell, R. Schnur & T. Delworth

Nature, 407, 617–620, October 2000. Download pdf (130 KB)

Attribution of climate change: the spectre of liability

Myles Allen

Presentation to Pretorial Meeting, October 2005.
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Probability in attributing and predicting climate change

Myles Allen

British Council, Leipzig, April 2005.
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Presentation to CosmoCaixa

Myles Allen

Madrid, Spain, March 2003.
Download pdf (560 KB)
Spanish version also available as a presentation file (ppt, 2 MB)

Model error in weather and climate forecasting

M.R. Allen, J. Kettleborough & D. Stainforth

Proceedings of the 2002 ECMWF Predictability Seminar, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK, 275–294. Download pdf (120 KB)

Will we ever be able to attribute individual weather events to anthropogenic climate change?

Myles Allen

Santiago de Compostela, July, 2003.
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Energy and climate: understanding climate change

Myles Allen

Saïd Business School, Oxford, January 2008.
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The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand

Black, M. T., Karoly, D. J., Rosier, S. M., Dean, S. M., King, A. D., Massey, N. R., Sparrow, S. N., Bowery, A., Wallom, D., Jones, R. G., Otto, F. E. L., and Allen, M. R

Geoscientific Model Development; Katlenburg-Lindau9.9 (2016): 3161-3176.

Climate change was an important driver of southern Australia’s warmest October on record

Black, M.T., and D. J. Karoly

[in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 97, S118-S121. DOI:

Volunteer computing in the Earth Sciences

Carl Christensen

Institute of Physics, London, 10 September, 2009.
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The challenge of volunteer computing with lengthy climate modelling simulations

C. Christensen, T. Aina & D. Stainforth

Proceedings of the 1st IEEE Conference on e-Science and Grid Computing, Melbourne, Australia, 5 to 8 December 2005. Download pdf (120 KB)

Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change

M. Collins

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 365, 1471–2962, 2007. Download pdf (340 KB)

How far ahead could we predict El Nino?

M. Collins, D. Frame, B. Sinha & C. Wilson

Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 10:1492, 31 May 2002. Download pdf (180 KB)

Climate predictability on Interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem

M. Collins

Climate Dynamics, 19 (8), 671–692, 18 March 2002. Download pdf (1.8 MB)

Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability

M. Collins & M.R. Allen

Journal of Climate, 15 (21), 3104–3109, November 2002. Download pdf (140 KB)

Climate change

Sam Dean

Cafe Scientifique, Cuba, April 2005.
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Predicting climate change through volunteer computing

Nick Faull & Milo Thurston

Oxford University Computing Services, February 2007.
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