Observational constraints on future climate: distinguishing robust from model-dependent statements of uncertainty in climate forecasting
Extended abstract of a talk for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Workshop on Uncertainty and Risk, Maynooth, Ireland, 12 to 14 May, 2004. Download pdf (140 KB)
Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability
M. Collins & M.R. Allen
Journal of Climate, 15 (21), 3104–3109, November 2002. Download pdf (140 KB)
Climate predictability on Interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem
Climate Dynamics, 19 (8), 671–692, 18 March 2002. Download pdf (1.8 MB)
Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 365, 1471–2962, 2007. Download pdf (340 KB)
How far ahead could we predict El Nino?
M. Collins, D. Frame, B. Sinha & C. Wilson
Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 10:1492, 31 May 2002. Download pdf (180 KB)
Constraining climate model properties using optimal fingerprint detection methods
C. Forest, M.R. Allen, A. Sokolov & P. Stone
Climate Dynamics, 18, 277–295, 2001. Doi 10.1007/s003820100175. Constraining climate model properties using optimal fingerprint detection methods abstract on Springer Link website.
Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment
H. Fowler, D. Cooley, S. Sain & M. Thurston
Extremes, 13 (2) 241–267, 2010. Doi:10.1007/s10687-010-0101-y. Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment abstract on Springer Link website.
Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions
D. J. Frame, B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, & M. R. Allen
Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L09702, May 2005. Download pdf (440 KB)
Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems
D. Frame, N. Faull, M. Joshi & M.R. Allen
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 15 August 2007. Doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2069. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems on Royal Society website.
Casino-21: Climate Simulation of the 21st Century
J. Hansen, M.R. Allen, D. Stainforth, A. Heaps & P. Stott
World Resource Review, 13 (2), 187–189, 2001. Casino-21: Climate Simulation of the 21st Century (110 KB)