Observational constraints on future climate: distinguishing robust from model-dependent statements of uncertainty in climate forecasting

Myles Allen

Extended abstract of a talk for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Workshop on Uncertainty and Risk, Maynooth, Ireland, 12 to 14 May, 2004. Download pdf (140 KB)

Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability

M. Collins & M.R. Allen

Journal of Climate, 15 (21), 3104–3109, November 2002. Download pdf (140 KB)

Climate predictability on Interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem

M. Collins

Climate Dynamics, 19 (8), 671–692, 18 March 2002. Download pdf (1.8 MB)

Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change

M. Collins

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 365, 1471–2962, 2007. Download pdf (340 KB)

How far ahead could we predict El Nino?

M. Collins, D. Frame, B. Sinha & C. Wilson

Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 10:1492, 31 May 2002. Download pdf (180 KB)

Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions

D. J. Frame, B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, & M. R. Allen

Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L09702, May 2005. Download pdf (440 KB)

Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems

D. Frame, N. Faull, M. Joshi & M.R. Allen

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 15 August 2007. Doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2069. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems on Royal Society website.