The Blame Game – who will pay for the damaging consequences of climate change?

M.R. Allen & R. Lord

Nature, 432, 551–552, December 2004. Download pdf (290 KB)

How far ahead could we predict El Nino?

M. Collins, D. Frame, B. Sinha & C. Wilson

Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 10:1492, 31 May 2002. Download pdf (180 KB)

Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change

M. Collins

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 365, 1471–2962, 2007. Download pdf (340 KB)

Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability

M. Collins & M.R. Allen

Journal of Climate, 15 (21), 3104–3109, November 2002. Download pdf (140 KB)

Climate predictability on Interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem

M. Collins

Climate Dynamics, 19 (8), 671–692, 18 March 2002. Download pdf (1.8 MB)

Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions

D. J. Frame, B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, & M. R. Allen

Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L09702, May 2005. Download pdf (440 KB)

Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems

D. Frame, N. Faull, M. Joshi & M.R. Allen

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 15 August 2007. Doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2069. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems on Royal Society website.

Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events

A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil

PrintBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015. doi: