Potential influences on the United Kingdom’s floods of winter 2013/14

Chris Huntingford, Terry Marsh, Adam A. Scaife, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Jamie Hannaford, Alison L. Kay, Mike Lockwood, Christel Prudhomme, Nick S. Reynard, Simon Parry, Jason A. Lowe, James A. Screen, Helen C. Ward, Malcolm Roberts, Peter A. Stott, Vicky A. Bell, Mark Bailey, Alan Jenkins, Tim Legg, Friederike E. L. Otto, Neil Massey, Nathalie Schaller, Julia Slingo & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Change 4, 769–777 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2314

Trends in the potential spread of seasonal climate simulations over South Africa

Kamoru A. Lawal, Dáithí A. Stone, Tolu Aina, Cameron Rye and Babatunde J. Abiodun

International Journal of Climatology, Volume 35, Issue 9, pages 2193–2209, July 2015; DOI: 10.1002/joc.4234

Attribution of Autumn/Winter 2000 flood risk in England to anthropogenic climate change: a catchment-based study

A.L. Kay, S.M. Crooks, P. Pall, & D.A. Stone

Journal of Hydrology, 406, 97–112, 2011. Download pdf (2.1 MB)

Association of parameter, software and hardware variation with large scale behavior across 57,000 climate models

C.G. Knight, S.H.E. Knight, N. Massey, T. Aina, C. Christensen, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, A. Martin, S. Pascoe, B. Sanderson, D.A. Stainforth & M.R. Allen

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104 (30), 12259–12264 July 2007. Doi:10.1073/pnas.0608144104. Download pdf (140 KB)

Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature

R. Knutti, G.A. Meehl, M.R.Allen & D.A. Stainforth

Journal of Climate, 19 (17), 4224–4233, 2006. Download pdf (810 KB)

Comment on heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system by S. E. Schwartz

R. Knutti, S. Krähenmann, D.J. Frame & M.R. Allen

PrintJournal of Geophysical Research, 113, 2008. D15103, doi:10.1029/2007JD009473. Download pdf (190 KB)

Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles

R. Knutti, T. Stocker, F. Joos & G.-K. Plattner

Nature 416, 18 April 2002. Download pdf (200 KB)

Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States using a superensemble from weather@home

Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Dean Vickers, Robert Mera, and Myles Allen

Journal of Climate 2015 ; e-View doi:

The attribution of warm November and cold December Central England temperatures

N. Massey, T. Aina, C. Rye, F.E.L. Otto, S. Wilson, R.G. Jones, & M.R. Allen

[in: Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 7, 2012. Download pdf (7.4 MB)

weather@home – development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution

Neil Massey, Richard Jones, Friederike Otto, Tolu Aina, Simon Wilson, James Murphy, David Hassell, Hiro Yamazaki and Myles Allen

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2455

Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley

Roberto Mera, Neil Massey, David E. Rupp, Philip Mote, Myles Allen, and Peter C. Frumhoff

Climatic Change, 2015; DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1474-3

Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western US

Philip W. Mote, Myles R. Allen, Richard G. Jones, Sihan Li, Roberto Mera, David E. Rupp, Ahmed Salahuddin and Dean Vickers

PrintBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015, doi:

Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations

J. Murphy, D. Sexton, D. Barnett, G. Jones, M. Webb, M. Collins & D. Stainforth

Nature, 430, 768–772, August 2004. Download pdf (580 KB)

Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade

Friederike Otto, Suzanne Rosier, Myles Allen, Neil Massey, Cameron Rye and Jara Imbers Quintana

PrintClimatic Change (2014) DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1095-2

Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

Friederike E. L. Otto, Emily Boyd, Richard G. Jones, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Hannah R. Parker, Myles R. Allen

Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0