Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems

D. Frame, N. Faull, M. Joshi & M.R. Allen

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 15 August 2007. Doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2069. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems on Royal Society website.

Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events

A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil

PrintBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015. doi:

Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs

Haustein, K., Otto, F.E.L., Uhe, P., Schaller, N., Allen, M.R., Hermanson, L., Christidis, N., McLean, P. and Cullen, H.

Environmental Research Letters, 11(6). 064006.

Potential influences on the United Kingdom’s floods of winter 2013/14

Chris Huntingford, Terry Marsh, Adam A. Scaife, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Jamie Hannaford, Alison L. Kay, Mike Lockwood, Christel Prudhomme, Nick S. Reynard, Simon Parry, Jason A. Lowe, James A. Screen, Helen C. Ward, Malcolm Roberts, Peter A. Stott, Vicky A. Bell, Mark Bailey, Alan Jenkins, Tim Legg, Friederike E. L. Otto, Neil Massey, Nathalie Schaller, Julia Slingo & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Change 4, 769–777 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2314

Trends in the potential spread of seasonal climate simulations over South Africa

Kamoru A. Lawal, Dáithí A. Stone, Tolu Aina, Cameron Rye and Babatunde J. Abiodun

International Journal of Climatology, Volume 35, Issue 9, pages 2193–2209, July 2015; DOI: 10.1002/joc.4234

The roles of climate change and El Niño in the record low rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, Australia

Karoly, D. J., M.T. Black, M.R. Grose and A. D. King

[in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 97, S127-S130. DOI:

Attribution of Autumn/Winter 2000 flood risk in England to anthropogenic climate change: a catchment-based study

A.L. Kay, S.M. Crooks, P. Pall, & D.A. Stone

Journal of Hydrology, 406, 97–112, 2011. Download pdf (2.1 MB)

Association of parameter, software and hardware variation with large scale behavior across 57,000 climate models

C.G. Knight, S.H.E. Knight, N. Massey, T. Aina, C. Christensen, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, A. Martin, S. Pascoe, B. Sanderson, D.A. Stainforth & M.R. Allen

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104 (30), 12259–12264 July 2007. Doi:10.1073/pnas.0608144104. Download pdf (140 KB)

Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature

R. Knutti, G.A. Meehl, M.R.Allen & D.A. Stainforth

Journal of Climate, 19 (17), 4224–4233, 2006. Download pdf (810 KB)

Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles

R. Knutti, T. Stocker, F. Joos & G.-K. Plattner

Nature 416, 18 April 2002. Download pdf (200 KB)

Comment on heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system by S. E. Schwartz

R. Knutti, S. Krähenmann, D.J. Frame & M.R. Allen

PrintJournal of Geophysical Research, 113, 2008. D15103, doi:10.1029/2007JD009473. Download pdf (190 KB)

Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States using a superensemble from weather@home

Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Dean Vickers, Robert Mera, and Myles Allen

Journal of Climate 2015 ; e-View doi:

weather@home – development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution

Neil Massey, Richard Jones, Friederike Otto, Tolu Aina, Simon Wilson, James Murphy, David Hassell, Hiro Yamazaki and Myles Allen

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2455

The attribution of warm November and cold December Central England temperatures

N. Massey, T. Aina, C. Rye, F.E.L. Otto, S. Wilson, R.G. Jones, & M.R. Allen

[in: Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 7, 2012. Download pdf (7.4 MB)

Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley

Roberto Mera, Neil Massey, David E. Rupp, Philip Mote, Myles Allen, and Peter C. Frumhoff

Climatic Change, 2015; DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1474-3

Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems

Mitchell, D., Davini, P., Harvey, B., Massey, N., Haustein, K., Woolings, T., Jones, R., Otto, F., Guillod, B., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. and Allen, M

Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3308-z

Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western US

Philip W. Mote, Myles R. Allen, Richard G. Jones, Sihan Li, Roberto Mera, David E. Rupp, Ahmed Salahuddin and Dean Vickers

PrintBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015, doi: