Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems

D. Frame, N. Faull, M. Joshi & M.R. Allen

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 15 August 2007. Doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2069. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems on Royal Society website.

The BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble

D.J. Frame, T. Aina, C.M. Christensen, N. E. Fall, S.H.E. Knight, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, K. Yamazaki, Y. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen

PrintPhilosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A, 367, 855–870, 2009. Download pdf (580 KB)

Dave Frame

NIWA (National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research), New Zealand, March 2005.
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Predicting climate change

Dave Frame

OUCE (Oxford University Centre for the Environment), Oxford, January 2006.
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Climate prediction and its uncertainties

Dave Frame

School of Geographical Science, Bristol, October 2005.
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Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions

D. J. Frame, B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, & M. R. Allen

Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L09702, May 2005. Download pdf (440 KB)

Predicting and attributing climate change

Dave Frame

British Council, Warsaw, Poland, September 2005.
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Martlet: a scientific work-flow language for abstracted parallisation

Daniel Goodman

All Hands meeting, Nottingham, 2006.
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Introduction and evaluation of martlet, a scientific workflow language for abstracted parallelisation

D. Goodman

Proceedings of the Sixteenth International World Wide Web Conference, 983–982, May 2007. Download pdf (120 KB)

Martlet: a scientific work-flow language for abstracted parallisation

D. Goodman

Proceedings of UK e-science All Hands meeting, Nottingham, UK, September 2006. Download pdf (80 KB)

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

Benoit P. Guillod, Richard G. Jones, Simon J. Dadson, Gemma Coxon, Gianbattista Bussi, James Freer, Alison L. Kay, Neil R. Massey1, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Myles R. Allen, and Jim W. Hall

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, January 2018

weather@home 2: validation of an improved global-regional climate modelling system

Guillod, B. P., Bowery, A., Haustein, K., Jones, R. G., Massey, N. R., Mitchell, D. M., Otto, F. E. L., Sparrow, S. N., Uhe, P., Wallom, D. C. H., Wilson, S., and Allen, M. R

Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-239, in review.

Climate change and extreme weather events

Helen Hanlon

Oxfordshire Women’s Institutes and Climate Xchange, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, November 2007.
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Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events

A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil

PrintBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015. doi:

Grand ensembles: Confidence, uncertainty and probability in climate change forecasts

Jim Hansen

Talk for Coal Technology Society of America, April 2005.
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A real-time Global Warming Index

K. Haustein, M. R. Allen, P. M. Forster, F. E. L. Otto, D. M. Mitchell, H. D. Matthews & D. J. Frame

Nature, Scientific Reports, November 2017

Link to paper

Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs

Haustein, K., Otto, F.E.L., Uhe, P., Schaller, N., Allen, M.R., Hermanson, L., Christidis, N., McLean, P. and Cullen, H.

Environmental Research Letters, 11(6). 064006.