Predicting climate change

Dave Frame

OUCE (Oxford University Centre for the Environment), Oxford, January 2006.
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Dave Frame

NIWA (National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research), New Zealand, March 2005.
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Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions

D. J. Frame, B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, & M. R. Allen

Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L09702, May 2005. Download pdf (440 KB)

Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems

D. Frame, N. Faull, M. Joshi & M.R. Allen

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 15 August 2007. Doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2069. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems on Royal Society website.

Predicting and attributing climate change

Dave Frame

British Council, Warsaw, Poland, September 2005.
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The BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble

D.J. Frame, T. Aina, C.M. Christensen, N. E. Fall, S.H.E. Knight, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, K. Yamazaki, Y. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen

PrintPhilosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A, 367, 855–870, 2009. Download pdf (580 KB)

Climate prediction and its uncertainties

Dave Frame

School of Geographical Science, Bristol, October 2005.
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Introduction and evaluation of martlet, a scientific workflow language for abstracted parallelisation

D. Goodman

Proceedings of the Sixteenth International World Wide Web Conference, 983–982, May 2007. Download pdf (120 KB)

Martlet: a scientific work-flow language for abstracted parallisation

D. Goodman

Proceedings of UK e-science All Hands meeting, Nottingham, UK, September 2006. Download pdf (80 KB)

Martlet: a scientific work-flow language for abstracted parallisation

Daniel Goodman

All Hands meeting, Nottingham, 2006.
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weather@home 2: validation of an improved global-regional climate modelling system

Guillod, B. P., Bowery, A., Haustein, K., Jones, R. G., Massey, N. R., Mitchell, D. M., Otto, F. E. L., Sparrow, S. N., Uhe, P., Wallom, D. C. H., Wilson, S., and Allen, M. R

Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-239, in review.

Climate change and extreme weather events

Helen Hanlon

Oxfordshire Women’s Institutes and Climate Xchange, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, November 2007.
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Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events

A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil

PrintBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015. doi:

Grand ensembles: Confidence, uncertainty and probability in climate change forecasts

Jim Hansen

Talk for Coal Technology Society of America, April 2005.
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Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs

Haustein, K., Otto, F.E.L., Uhe, P., Schaller, N., Allen, M.R., Hermanson, L., Christidis, N., McLean, P. and Cullen, H.

Environmental Research Letters, 11(6). 064006.

Potential influences on the United Kingdom’s floods of winter 2013/14

Chris Huntingford, Terry Marsh, Adam A. Scaife, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Jamie Hannaford, Alison L. Kay, Mike Lockwood, Christel Prudhomme, Nick S. Reynard, Simon Parry, Jason A. Lowe, James A. Screen, Helen C. Ward, Malcolm Roberts, Peter A. Stott, Vicky A. Bell, Mark Bailey, Alan Jenkins, Tim Legg, Friederike E. L. Otto, Neil Massey, Nathalie Schaller, Julia Slingo & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Change 4, 769–777 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2314

Trends in the potential spread of seasonal climate simulations over South Africa

Kamoru A. Lawal, Dáithí A. Stone, Tolu Aina, Cameron Rye and Babatunde J. Abiodun

International Journal of Climatology, Volume 35, Issue 9, pages 2193–2209, July 2015; DOI: 10.1002/joc.4234