Publications

Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States

Mote, P., Rupp, D., Li, S. Sharp, D. Otto, F., Uhe, P., Xiao, M., Lettermaier, D., Cullen, H. and Allen, M.

Geophysical Research Letters: 10980-10988.

Climate Model Forecast Biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble

David P. Mulholland, Keith Haines, Sarah N. Sparrow and David Wallom

Clim Dyn (2016). doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3407-x

Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations

J. Murphy, D. Sexton, D. Barnett, G. Jones, M. Webb, M. Collins & D. Stainforth

Nature, 430, 768–772, August 2004. Download pdf (580 KB)

The attribution question

Otto, F.E.L., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Eden, J., Stott, P.A., Karoly, D.J. and Allen, M.R.

Nature Climate Change, 6: 813-816.

Extreme events: The art of attribution

Friederike E. L. Otto

Nature Climate Change6,342–343doi:10.1038/nclimate2971

Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests

Otto FEL, Jones RG, Halladay K, Allen MR

Phil Trans R Soc B, 368, 2013. Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests 

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

Friederike E. L. Otto, David J. Frame, Alexander Otto & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Change (2015)  doi:10.1038/nclimate2716

Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

Friederike E. L. Otto, Emily Boyd, Richard G. Jones, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Hannah R. Parker, Myles R. Allen

Print
Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0

Climate change: Attribution of extreme weather

Friederike E. L. Otto

Nature Geoscience (2015) doi:10.1038/ngeo2484

Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade

Friederike Otto, Suzanne Rosier, Myles Allen, Neil Massey, Cameron Rye and Jara Imbers Quintana

PrintClimatic Change (2014) DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1095-2

Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage

Allen Thompson, Friederike E. L. Otto

Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1433-z

Beyond climatological extremes – assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate

Sippel, S., Otto, F. E. L.

PrintClimatic Change (2014)  doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1153-9.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in Autumn 2000

P. Pall, T. Aina, D. Stone, P. Stott, T. Nozawa, A. Hilberts, D. Lohmann & M.R. Allen

Nature, 470, 382–385, 2011. Download pdf (1.4 MB)

Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate.

Hannah R. Parker, Emily Boyd, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Friederike E. L. Otto & Myles R. Allen

Climate Policy: doi:10.1080/14693062.2015.1124750

A comparison of model ensembles for attributing 2012 West African rainfall,

Parker, H., Lott, F., Cornforth, R., Mitchell, D., Sparrow, S., and Wallom, D

Environmental Research Letters, 12 014019 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5386

Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations

C. Piani, D. J. Frame, D. A. Stainforth & M. R. Allen

Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L23825, December 2005. Download pdf (730 KB)