The attribution question

Otto, F.E.L., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Eden, J., Stott, P.A., Karoly, D.J. and Allen, M.R.

Nature Climate Change, 6: 813-816.

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

Friederike E. L. Otto, David J. Frame, Alexander Otto & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Change (2015)  doi:10.1038/nclimate2716

Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage

Allen Thompson, Friederike E. L. Otto

Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1433-z

Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

Friederike E. L. Otto, Emily Boyd, Richard G. Jones, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Hannah R. Parker, Myles R. Allen

Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0

Beyond climatological extremes – assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate

Sippel, S., Otto, F. E. L.

PrintClimatic Change (2014)  doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1153-9.

Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests

Otto FEL, Jones RG, Halladay K, Allen MR

Phil Trans R Soc B, 368, 2013. Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests 

Climate change: Attribution of extreme weather

Friederike E. L. Otto

Nature Geoscience (2015) doi:10.1038/ngeo2484

Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade

Friederike Otto, Suzanne Rosier, Myles Allen, Neil Massey, Cameron Rye and Jara Imbers Quintana

PrintClimatic Change (2014) DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1095-2

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in Autumn 2000

P. Pall, T. Aina, D. Stone, P. Stott, T. Nozawa, A. Hilberts, D. Lohmann & M.R. Allen

Nature, 470, 382–385, 2011. Download pdf (1.4 MB)

Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate.

Hannah R. Parker, Emily Boyd, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Friederike E. L. Otto & Myles R. Allen

Climate Policy: doi:10.1080/14693062.2015.1124750

Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations

C. Piani, D. J. Frame, D. A. Stainforth & M. R. Allen

Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L23825, December 2005. Download pdf (730 KB)

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

D.J. Rowlands, D.J. Frame, D. Ackerley, T. Aina, B.B.B. Booth, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, C.E. Forest, B.S. Grandey, E. Gryspeerdt, E.J. Highwood, W.J. Ingram, S. Knight, A. Lopez, N. Massey, F. McNamara, N. Meinshausen, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, B.M. Sanderson, L.A. Smith, D.A. Stone, M. Thurston, K. Yamazaki, H. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen

Nature Geoscience, 2012. Doi:10.1038/NGEO1430. Download pdf (1.3 MB). Supplementary information (pdf, 2.4 MB)

Human Influence on the probability of low precipitation in the central United States in 2012

Davie E. Rupp, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Friederike E.L. Otto, Myles R. Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S2-S6, 2013. Download pdf

Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011

David E. Rupp, Sihan Li, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, Philip W. Mote, Myles Allen

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 42, Issue 7, 16 April 2015, Pages 2392–2400. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062683

Did human influence on climate make the 2011 Texas drought more probable?

D.E. Rupp, P.W. Mote, N. Massey, C.J. Rye, R. Jones & M.R. Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 93, 1052–1054, 2012. 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1. Download pdf (7.4 MB)

Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the role of subgrid-scale processes

B. Sanderson, R. Knutti, T. Aina, C. Christensen, N. Faull, D. Frame, W. Ingram, C. Piani, D. Stainforth, D. Stone & M. Allen

Journal of Climate, 21, 2384–2400, June 2008. Download pdf (1.6 MB)