Extreme events: The art of attribution

Friederike E. L. Otto

Nature Climate Change6,342–343doi:10.1038/nclimate2971

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

Friederike E. L. Otto, David J. Frame, Alexander Otto & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Change (2015)  doi:10.1038/nclimate2716

Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

Friederike E. L. Otto, Emily Boyd, Richard G. Jones, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Hannah R. Parker, Myles R. Allen

Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0

Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade

Friederike Otto, Suzanne Rosier, Myles Allen, Neil Massey, Cameron Rye and Jara Imbers Quintana

PrintClimatic Change (2014) DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1095-2

Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests

Otto FEL, Jones RG, Halladay K, Allen MR

Phil Trans R Soc B, 368, 2013. Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests 

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in Autumn 2000

P. Pall, T. Aina, D. Stone, P. Stott, T. Nozawa, A. Hilberts, D. Lohmann & M.R. Allen

Nature, 470, 382–385, 2011. Download pdf (1.4 MB)

Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate.

Hannah R. Parker, Emily Boyd, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Friederike E. L. Otto & Myles R. Allen

Climate Policy: doi:10.1080/14693062.2015.1124750

Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations

C. Piani, D. J. Frame, D. A. Stainforth & M. R. Allen

Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L23825, December 2005. Download pdf (730 KB)

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

D.J. Rowlands, D.J. Frame, D. Ackerley, T. Aina, B.B.B. Booth, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, C.E. Forest, B.S. Grandey, E. Gryspeerdt, E.J. Highwood, W.J. Ingram, S. Knight, A. Lopez, N. Massey, F. McNamara, N. Meinshausen, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, B.M. Sanderson, L.A. Smith, D.A. Stone, M. Thurston, K. Yamazaki, H. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen

Nature Geoscience, 2012. Doi:10.1038/NGEO1430. Download pdf (1.3 MB). Supplementary information (pdf, 2.4 MB)

Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011

David E. Rupp, Sihan Li, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, Philip W. Mote, Myles Allen

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 42, Issue 7, 16 April 2015, Pages 2392–2400. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062683

Human Influence on the probability of low precipitation in the central United States in 2012

Davie E. Rupp, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Friederike E.L. Otto, Myles R. Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S2-S6, 2013. Download pdf

Did human influence on climate make the 2011 Texas drought more probable?

D.E. Rupp, P.W. Mote, N. Massey, C.J. Rye, R. Jones & M.R. Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 93, 1052–1054, 2012. 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1. Download pdf (7.4 MB)

Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations

B. Sanderson, C. Piani, W.J. Ingram, D.A. Stone & M.R. Allen

Climate Dynamics, 30, 175–190, February 2008. Download pdf (3.7 MB)

Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs

B. Sanderson, K. Shell & W. Ingram

PrintClimate Dynamics, 35, 1219–1236, December 2010. Download pdf (1.3 MB)

Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the role of subgrid-scale processes

B. Sanderson, R. Knutti, T. Aina, C. Christensen, N. Faull, D. Frame, W. Ingram, C. Piani, D. Stainforth, D. Stone & M. Allen

Journal of Climate, 21, 2384–2400, June 2008. Download pdf (1.6 MB)

Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts


Nathalie Schaller, Alison L. Kay, Rob Lamb, Neil R. Massey, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Ian Ashpole, Andy Bowery, Susan M. Crooks, Karsten Haustein, Chris Huntingford, William J. Ingram, Richard G. Jones, Tim Legg, Jonathan Miller, Jessica Skeggs, David Wallom, Antje Weisheimer, Simon Wilson, Peter A. Stott & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Changedoi:10.1038/nclimate2927