Publications

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

D.J. Rowlands, D.J. Frame, D. Ackerley, T. Aina, B.B.B. Booth, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, C.E. Forest, B.S. Grandey, E. Gryspeerdt, E.J. Highwood, W.J. Ingram, S. Knight, A. Lopez, N. Massey, F. McNamara, N. Meinshausen, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, B.M. Sanderson, L.A. Smith, D.A. Stone, M. Thurston, K. Yamazaki, H. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen

Nature Geoscience, 2012. Doi:10.1038/NGEO1430. Download pdf (1.3 MB). Supplementary information (pdf, 2.4 MB)

Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011

David E. Rupp, Sihan Li, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, Philip W. Mote, Myles Allen

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 42, Issue 7, 16 April 2015, Pages 2392–2400. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062683

Less warming projected during heavy winter precipitation in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada

Rupp, D. and Li, S

Int. J. Climatol.. doi:10.1002/joc.4963

Did human influence on climate make the 2011 Texas drought more probable?

D.E. Rupp, P.W. Mote, N. Massey, C.J. Rye, R. Jones & M.R. Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 93, 1052–1054, 2012. 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1. Download pdf (7.4 MB)

Human Influence on the probability of low precipitation in the central United States in 2012

Davie E. Rupp, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Friederike E.L. Otto, Myles R. Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S2-S6, 2013. Download pdf

Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US

Rupp, D.E., Li, S., Mote, P.W., Shell, K.M., Massey, N., Sparrow, S.N., Wallom, D.C. and Allen, M.R

Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x

Influence of the ocean and greenhouse gases on severe drought likelihood in the central US in 2012

Rupp, Sihan Li, Philip W Mote, Neil Massey, Sarah N Sparrow, David CH Wallom

Journal of Climate. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0294.1

Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs

B. Sanderson, K. Shell & W. Ingram

PrintClimate Dynamics, 35, 1219–1236, December 2010. Download pdf (1.3 MB)

Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the role of subgrid-scale processes

B. Sanderson, R. Knutti, T. Aina, C. Christensen, N. Faull, D. Frame, W. Ingram, C. Piani, D. Stainforth, D. Stone & M. Allen

Journal of Climate, 21, 2384–2400, June 2008. Download pdf (1.6 MB)

Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations

B. Sanderson, C. Piani, W.J. Ingram, D.A. Stone & M.R. Allen

Climate Dynamics, 30, 175–190, February 2008. Download pdf (3.7 MB)

Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts

 

Nathalie Schaller, Alison L. Kay, Rob Lamb, Neil R. Massey, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Ian Ashpole, Andy Bowery, Susan M. Crooks, Karsten Haustein, Chris Huntingford, William J. Ingram, Richard G. Jones, Tim Legg, Jonathan Miller, Jessica Skeggs, David Wallom, Antje Weisheimer, Simon Wilson, Peter A. Stott & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Changedoi:10.1038/nclimate2927

 

Avoiding dangerous climate change

H.J. Schellnhuber (Chief Ed.), W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley, & G. Yohe (Eds.)

Avoiding dangerous climate change, Cambridge University Press, 2006. In particular:

  • Chapter 29 – Observational constraints on climate change
  • Chapter 33 – Risks associate with stabilisation scenarios and uncertainty in regional and global climate change impacts

Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming.

Sippel, S., Zeischler, J., Heimann, M., Otto, F.E.L., Peters, J. and Mahecha, M.D.

Geophysical Research Letters, 42(20): doi 10.1002/2015GL066307

A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations

Sippel, S., Otto, F., Forkel, M., Allen, M., Guillod, B., Heimann, M., Reichstein, M., Seneviratne, S., Thonicke, K. and Mahecha, M

Earth System Dynamics, 7(1): 71-88.

Stakeholder Perspectives on the Attribution of Extreme Weather Events: An Explorative Enquiry

Sebastian Sippel, Peter Walton, and Friederike E.L. Otto

Weather, Climate, and Society 2015; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00045.1

Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events

Sebastian Sippel, Dann Mitchell, Mitchell T. Black, Andrea J. Dittus, Luke Harrington, Nathalie Schaller, Friederike E.L. Otto

PrintWeather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.004

The use of very large atmospheric model ensemble to assess potential anthropogenic influence on the UK summer 2012 high rainfall totals

Sarah Sparrow, Chris Huntingford, Neil Massey, Myles Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S36-S41, 2013. Download pdf

Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

D.A. Stainforth, T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. Martin, J.M. Murphy, C. Piani, D. Sexton, L.A. Smith, R.A. Spicer, A.J. Thorpe & M.R. Allen

Nature, 433, 403–406, January 2005. Download pdf (720 KB)