Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations

B. Sanderson, C. Piani, W.J. Ingram, D.A. Stone & M.R. Allen

Climate Dynamics, 30, 175–190, February 2008. Download pdf (3.7 MB)

Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs

B. Sanderson, K. Shell & W. Ingram

PrintClimate Dynamics, 35, 1219–1236, December 2010. Download pdf (1.3 MB)

Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts


Nathalie Schaller, Alison L. Kay, Rob Lamb, Neil R. Massey, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Ian Ashpole, Andy Bowery, Susan M. Crooks, Karsten Haustein, Chris Huntingford, William J. Ingram, Richard G. Jones, Tim Legg, Jonathan Miller, Jessica Skeggs, David Wallom, Antje Weisheimer, Simon Wilson, Peter A. Stott & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Changedoi:10.1038/nclimate2927


Avoiding dangerous climate change

H.J. Schellnhuber (Chief Ed.), W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley, & G. Yohe (Eds.)

Avoiding dangerous climate change, Cambridge University Press, 2006. In particular:

  • Chapter 29 – Observational constraints on climate change
  • Chapter 33 – Risks associate with stabilisation scenarios and uncertainty in regional and global climate change impacts

Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming.

Sippel, S., Zeischler, J., Heimann, M., Otto, F.E.L., Peters, J. and Mahecha, M.D.

Geophysical Research Letters, 42(20): doi 10.1002/2015GL066307

Stakeholder Perspectives on the Attribution of Extreme Weather Events: An Explorative Enquiry

Sebastian Sippel, Peter Walton, and Friederike E.L. Otto

Weather, Climate, and Society 2015; doi:

Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events

Sebastian Sippel, Dann Mitchell, Mitchell T. Black, Andrea J. Dittus, Luke Harrington, Nathalie Schaller, Friederike E.L. Otto

PrintWeather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.004

A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations

Sippel, S., Otto, F., Forkel, M., Allen, M., Guillod, B., Heimann, M., Reichstein, M., Seneviratne, S., Thonicke, K. and Mahecha, M

Earth System Dynamics, 7(1): 71-88.

The use of very large atmospheric model ensemble to assess potential anthropogenic influence on the UK summer 2012 high rainfall totals

Sarah Sparrow, Chris Huntingford, Neil Massey, Myles Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S36-S41, 2013. Download pdf

Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

D.A. Stainforth, T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. Martin, J.M. Murphy, C. Piani, D. Sexton, L.A. Smith, R.A. Spicer, A.J. Thorpe & M.R. Allen

Nature, 433, 403–406, January 2005. Download pdf (720 KB)

The detection and attribution of human influence on climate

D.A. Stone, M.R. Allen, P.A. Stott, P. Pall, S.-K Min, T. Nozawa & S. Yukimoto

Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 34, 1–16, 2009. The detection and attribution of human influence on climate abstract on Annual Review of Environment and Resources website.

Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise

P. Stott & J. Kettleborough

Nature, 416, 719–723, 18 April 2002. Download pdf (210 KB)

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

Stott, P.A., Christidis, N., Otto, F.E.L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J.P., Jan van Oldenborgh, G., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P. and Zwiers, F.W.

WIREs Climate change, 7(1): 23-41. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.380

Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003

P. Stott, D. Stone & M.R. Allen

Nature, 432, 610–614, December 2004. Download pdf (220 KB)

The record winter drought of 2011-2012 in the Iberian Peninsula. Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective

Ricardo Machado Trigo, Juan A. Añel, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, Luis Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, Rodrigo Castillo, Myles R. Allen, and Neil Massey

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94(9), S41-S45.

Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences

Uhe, P., Otto, F.E.L., Haustein, K., van Oldenborgh, G.J., King, A.D., Wallom, D.C.H., Allen, M.R. and Cullen, H

Geophysical Research Letters. DOI:10.1002/2016GL069568

Visualisation for public-resource climate modelling

J. Walton, D. Frame & D. Stainforth

Data Visualisation 2004, 103–108, Eurographics Association, 2004. (O. Deussen, C. Hansen, D. Keim & D. Saupe eds.) Download pdf (1.6 MB)

Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

Anna Wesselink, Andrew Juan Challinor, James Watson, Keith Beven, Icarus Allen, Helen Hanlon, Ana Lopez, Susanne Lorenz, Friederike Otto, Andy Morse, Cameron Rye, Stephane Saux-Picard, David Stainforth, Emma Suckling

PrintClimatic Change, August 2014
doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1213-1