Publications

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

D.J. Rowlands, D.J. Frame, D. Ackerley, T. Aina, B.B.B. Booth, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, C.E. Forest, B.S. Grandey, E. Gryspeerdt, E.J. Highwood, W.J. Ingram, S. Knight, A. Lopez, N. Massey, F. McNamara, N. Meinshausen, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, B.M. Sanderson, L.A. Smith, D.A. Stone, M. Thurston, K. Yamazaki, H. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen

Nature Geoscience, 2012. Doi:10.1038/NGEO1430. Download pdf (1.3 MB). Supplementary information (pdf, 2.4 MB)

Did human influence on climate make the 2011 Texas drought more probable?

D.E. Rupp, P.W. Mote, N. Massey, C.J. Rye, R. Jones & M.R. Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 93, 1052–1054, 2012. 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1. Download pdf (7.4 MB)

Human Influence on the probability of low precipitation in the central United States in 2012

Davie E. Rupp, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Friederike E.L. Otto, Myles R. Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S2-S6, 2013. Download pdf

Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs

B. Sanderson, K. Shell & W. Ingram

PrintClimate Dynamics, 35, 1219–1236, December 2010. Download pdf (1.3 MB)

Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations

B. Sanderson, C. Piani, W.J. Ingram, D.A. Stone & M.R. Allen

Climate Dynamics, 30, 175–190, February 2008. Download pdf (3.7 MB)

Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the role of subgrid-scale processes

B. Sanderson, R. Knutti, T. Aina, C. Christensen, N. Faull, D. Frame, W. Ingram, C. Piani, D. Stainforth, D. Stone & M. Allen

Journal of Climate, 21, 2384–2400, June 2008. Download pdf (1.6 MB)

Avoiding dangerous climate change

H.J. Schellnhuber (Chief Ed.), W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley, & G. Yohe (Eds.)

Avoiding dangerous climate change, Cambridge University Press, 2006. In particular:

  • Chapter 29 – Observational constraints on climate change
  • Chapter 33 – Risks associate with stabilisation scenarios and uncertainty in regional and global climate change impacts

The use of very large atmospheric model ensemble to assess potential anthropogenic influence on the UK summer 2012 high rainfall totals

Sarah Sparrow, Chris Huntingford, Neil Massey, Myles Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S36-S41, 2013. Download pdf

Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

D.A. Stainforth, T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. Martin, J.M. Murphy, C. Piani, D. Sexton, L.A. Smith, R.A. Spicer, A.J. Thorpe & M.R. Allen

Nature, 433, 403–406, January 2005. Download pdf (720 KB)