Extreme events: The art of attribution

Friederike E. L. Otto

Nature Climate Change6,342–343doi:10.1038/nclimate2971

Climate change: Attribution of extreme weather

Friederike E. L. Otto

Nature Geoscience (2015) doi:10.1038/ngeo2484

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

Friederike E. L. Otto, David J. Frame, Alexander Otto & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Change (2015)  doi:10.1038/nclimate2716

The attribution question

Otto, F.E.L., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Eden, J., Stott, P.A., Karoly, D.J. and Allen, M.R.

Nature Climate Change, 6: 813-816.

Beyond climatological extremes – assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate

Sippel, S., Otto, F. E. L.

PrintClimatic Change (2014)  doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1153-9.

Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

Friederike E. L. Otto, Emily Boyd, Richard G. Jones, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Hannah R. Parker, Myles R. Allen

Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0

Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage

Allen Thompson, Friederike E. L. Otto

Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1433-z

Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests

Otto FEL, Jones RG, Halladay K, Allen MR

Phil Trans R Soc B, 368, 2013. Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests 

Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

Luke Harrington and Friederike Otto

Environmental Research Letters, February 2018

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in Autumn 2000

P. Pall, T. Aina, D. Stone, P. Stott, T. Nozawa, A. Hilberts, D. Lohmann & M.R. Allen

Nature, 470, 382–385, 2011. Download pdf (1.4 MB)

A comparison of model ensembles for attributing 2012 West African rainfall,

Parker, H., Lott, F., Cornforth, R., Mitchell, D., Sparrow, S., and Wallom, D

Environmental Research Letters, 12 014019 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5386

Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate.

Hannah R. Parker, Emily Boyd, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Friederike E. L. Otto & Myles R. Allen

Climate Policy: doi:10.1080/14693062.2015.1124750

Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations

C. Piani, D. J. Frame, D. A. Stainforth & M. R. Allen

Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L23825, December 2005. Download pdf (730 KB)

Estimating uncertainties in global and regional climate change projections using a large multi-member climate model ensemble

Derek Rosendahl & David Karoly

Poster for Seventh NOAA Annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, USA, March, 2009.
Download pdf (1 MB)

Estimating uncertainties in global and regional climate change projections using a multi-thousand member climate model ensemble

Derek Rosendahl & David Karoly

Poster from 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change at the 90th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, USA, January, 2010.
Download PDF.

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

D.J. Rowlands, D.J. Frame, D. Ackerley, T. Aina, B.B.B. Booth, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, C.E. Forest, B.S. Grandey, E. Gryspeerdt, E.J. Highwood, W.J. Ingram, S. Knight, A. Lopez, N. Massey, F. McNamara, N. Meinshausen, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, B.M. Sanderson, L.A. Smith, D.A. Stone, M. Thurston, K. Yamazaki, H. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen

Nature Geoscience, 2012. Doi:10.1038/NGEO1430. Download pdf (1.3 MB). Supplementary information (pdf, 2.4 MB)