Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

D.J. Rowlands, D.J. Frame, D. Ackerley, T. Aina, B.B.B. Booth, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, C.E. Forest, B.S. Grandey, E. Gryspeerdt, E.J. Highwood, W.J. Ingram, S. Knight, A. Lopez, N. Massey, F. McNamara, N. Meinshausen, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, B.M. Sanderson, L.A. Smith, D.A. Stone, M. Thurston, K. Yamazaki, H. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen

Nature Geoscience, 2012. Doi:10.1038/NGEO1430. Download pdf (1.3 MB). Supplementary information (pdf, 2.4 MB)

Did human influence on climate make the 2011 Texas drought more probable?

D.E. Rupp, P.W. Mote, N. Massey, C.J. Rye, R. Jones & M.R. Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 93, 1052–1054, 2012. 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1. Download pdf (7.4 MB)

Human Influence on the probability of low precipitation in the central United States in 2012

Davie E. Rupp, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Friederike E.L. Otto, Myles R. Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S2-S6, 2013. Download pdf

Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011

David E. Rupp, Sihan Li, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, Philip W. Mote, Myles Allen

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 42, Issue 7, 16 April 2015, Pages 2392–2400. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062683

Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the role of subgrid-scale processes

B. Sanderson, R. Knutti, T. Aina, C. Christensen, N. Faull, D. Frame, W. Ingram, C. Piani, D. Stainforth, D. Stone & M. Allen

Journal of Climate, 21, 2384–2400, June 2008. Download pdf (1.6 MB)

Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations

B. Sanderson, C. Piani, W.J. Ingram, D.A. Stone & M.R. Allen

Climate Dynamics, 30, 175–190, February 2008. Download pdf (3.7 MB)

Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs

B. Sanderson, K. Shell & W. Ingram

PrintClimate Dynamics, 35, 1219–1236, December 2010. Download pdf (1.3 MB)

Avoiding dangerous climate change

H.J. Schellnhuber (Chief Ed.), W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley, & G. Yohe (Eds.)

Avoiding dangerous climate change, Cambridge University Press, 2006. In particular:

  • Chapter 29 – Observational constraints on climate change
  • Chapter 33 – Risks associate with stabilisation scenarios and uncertainty in regional and global climate change impacts

Stakeholder Perspectives on the Attribution of Extreme Weather Events: An Explorative Enquiry

Sebastian Sippel, Peter Walton, and Friederike E.L. Otto

Weather, Climate, and Society 2015; doi:

Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events

Sebastian Sippel, Dann Mitchell, Mitchell T. Black, Andrea J. Dittus, Luke Harrington, Nathalie Schaller, Friederike E.L. Otto

PrintWeather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.004

The use of very large atmospheric model ensemble to assess potential anthropogenic influence on the UK summer 2012 high rainfall totals

Sarah Sparrow, Chris Huntingford, Neil Massey, Myles Allen

[in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S36-S41, 2013. Download pdf

Public resource distributed modelling

Dave Stainforth

Stockholm, Sweden, March 2006.
Download pdf (920 KB)

Security principles for public-resource modelling research

D. Stainforth, A. Martin, A. Simpson, C. Christensen, J. Kettleborough, T. Aina & M.R. Allen

Proceedings of the 13th IEEE Conference on Enabling Grid Technologies (ENTGRID), Modena, Italy, June 2004. Download pdf (50 KB) design principles for public resource modelling research

D. Stainforth, J. Kettleborough, A. Martin, A. Simpson, R. Gillis, A. Akkas, R. Gault, M. Collins, D. Gavaghan & M. Allen

Proceedings of 14th IASTED conference on parallel and distributed computing systems, 2002. Download pdf (250 KB)

Risks associated with stabilisation scenarios?

Dave Stainforth

Talk at Stabilisation 2005, Met Office, Exeter, February 2005.
Download pdf (320 KB)

Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

D.A. Stainforth, T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. Martin, J.M. Murphy, C. Piani, D. Sexton, L.A. Smith, R.A. Spicer, A.J. Thorpe & M.R. Allen

Nature, 433, 403–406, January 2005. Download pdf (720 KB) Distributed computing for public interest modelling research

D. Stainforth, J. Kettleborough, M.R. Allen, M. Collins, & A. Heaps

Computing in Science and Engineering, 4 (3), 2002. Download pdf (720 KB)

The detection and attribution of human influence on climate

D.A. Stone, M.R. Allen, P.A. Stott, P. Pall, S.-K Min, T. Nozawa & S. Yukimoto

Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 34, 1–16, 2009. The detection and attribution of human influence on climate abstract on Annual Review of Environment and Resources website.

Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003

P. Stott, D. Stone & M.R. Allen

Nature, 432, 610–614, December 2004. Download pdf (220 KB)