Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events

A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil

PrintBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015. doi:

Trends in the potential spread of seasonal climate simulations over South Africa

Kamoru A. Lawal, Dáithí A. Stone, Tolu Aina, Cameron Rye and Babatunde J. Abiodun

International Journal of Climatology, Volume 35, Issue 9, pages 2193–2209, July 2015; DOI: 10.1002/joc.4234

Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States using a superensemble from weather@home

Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Dean Vickers, Robert Mera, and Myles Allen

Journal of Climate 2015 ; e-View doi:

Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley

Roberto Mera, Neil Massey, David E. Rupp, Philip Mote, Myles Allen, and Peter C. Frumhoff

Climatic Change, 2015; DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1474-3

Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western US

Philip W. Mote, Myles R. Allen, Richard G. Jones, Sihan Li, Roberto Mera, David E. Rupp, Ahmed Salahuddin and Dean Vickers

PrintBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015, doi:

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

Friederike E. L. Otto, David J. Frame, Alexander Otto & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Change (2015)  doi:10.1038/nclimate2716

Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

Friederike E. L. Otto, Emily Boyd, Richard G. Jones, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Hannah R. Parker, Myles R. Allen

Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0

Climate change: Attribution of extreme weather

Friederike E. L. Otto

Nature Geoscience (2015) doi:10.1038/ngeo2484

Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage

Allen Thompson, Friederike E. L. Otto

Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1433-z

Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011

David E. Rupp, Sihan Li, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, Philip W. Mote, Myles Allen

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 42, Issue 7, 16 April 2015, Pages 2392–2400. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062683

Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming.

Sippel, S., Zeischler, J., Heimann, M., Otto, F.E.L., Peters, J. and Mahecha, M.D.

Geophysical Research Letters, 42(20): doi 10.1002/2015GL066307

Stakeholder Perspectives on the Attribution of Extreme Weather Events: An Explorative Enquiry

Sebastian Sippel, Peter Walton, and Friederike E.L. Otto

Weather, Climate, and Society 2015; doi:

Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events

Sebastian Sippel, Dann Mitchell, Mitchell T. Black, Andrea J. Dittus, Luke Harrington, Nathalie Schaller, Friederike E.L. Otto

PrintWeather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.004

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

Stott, P.A., Christidis, N., Otto, F.E.L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J.P., Jan van Oldenborgh, G., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P. and Zwiers, F.W.

WIREs Climate change, 7(1): 23-41. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.380