Publications

Observational constraints on future climate: distinguishing robust from model-dependent statements of uncertainty in climate forecasting

Myles Allen

Extended abstract of a talk for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Workshop on Uncertainty and Risk, Maynooth, Ireland, 12 to 14 May, 2004. Download pdf (140 KB)

The case for mandatory sequestration

M.R. Allen, D. Frame & C. Manson

Nature Geoscience 2, 813–814, December 2009. The case for mandatory sequestration abstract on Nature Geoscience website.

Call off the quest

M.R. Allen & D. Frame

Science, 26, 582–583, October 2007. Doi:10.1126/science.1149988. Download pdf (150 KB)

Model error in weather and climate forecasting

M.R. Allen, J. Kettleborough & D. Stainforth

Proceedings of the 2002 ECMWF Predictability Seminar, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK, 275–294. Download pdf (120 KB)

Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle

M.R. Allen, W. Ingram & D. Stainforth

Nature Insight article, Nature, 419, 224–232, 12 September 2002. Download pdf (210 KB)

Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change

M.R. Allen, P. Stott, J. Mitchell, R. Schnur & T. Delworth

Nature, 407, 617–620, October 2000. Download pdf (130 KB)

Do it yourself climate prediction

M. Allen

Nature, 401, 642, October 1999. Download pdf (50 KB)

The Blame Game – who will pay for the damaging consequences of climate change?

M.R. Allen & R. Lord

Nature, 432, 551–552, December 2004. Download pdf (290 KB)

Climate predictability on Interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem

M. Collins

Climate Dynamics, 19 (8), 671–692, 18 March 2002. Download pdf (1.8 MB)

Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change

M. Collins

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 365, 1471–2962, 2007. Download pdf (340 KB)

Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability

M. Collins & M.R. Allen

Journal of Climate, 15 (21), 3104–3109, November 2002. Download pdf (140 KB)

How far ahead could we predict El Nino?

M. Collins, D. Frame, B. Sinha & C. Wilson

Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 10:1492, 31 May 2002. Download pdf (180 KB)

Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems

D. Frame, N. Faull, M. Joshi & M.R. Allen

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 15 August 2007. Doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2069. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems on Royal Society website.

Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions

D. J. Frame, B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, & M. R. Allen

Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L09702, May 2005. Download pdf (440 KB)

Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events

A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil

PrintBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00034.1