Model error in weather and climate forecasting

M.R. Allen, J. Kettleborough & D. Stainforth

Proceedings of the 2002 ECMWF Predictability Seminar, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK, 275–294. Download pdf (120 KB)

Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle

M.R. Allen, W. Ingram & D. Stainforth

Nature Insight article, Nature, 419, 224–232, 12 September 2002. Download pdf (210 KB)

Climate predictability on Interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem

M. Collins

Climate Dynamics, 19 (8), 671–692, 18 March 2002. Download pdf (1.8 MB)

Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability

M. Collins & M.R. Allen

Journal of Climate, 15 (21), 3104–3109, November 2002. Download pdf (140 KB)

How far ahead could we predict El Nino?

M. Collins, D. Frame, B. Sinha & C. Wilson

Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 10:1492, 31 May 2002. Download pdf (180 KB)

Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles

R. Knutti, T. Stocker, F. Joos & G.-K. Plattner

Nature 416, 18 April 2002. Download pdf (200 KB)

Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise

P. Stott & J. Kettleborough

Nature, 416, 719–723, 18 April 2002. Download pdf (210 KB)