Global Development and CO2 Emissions
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is a Greenhouse Gas. It is released into the atmosphere when we burn fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil) for energy - which we are currently doing more than ever before. In the atmosphere, it insulates the Earth - the more there is, the warmer the Earth. How much we emit over the next 100 years will determine how the Earth's climate changes.
By 2100 the world will have changed in ways that are difficult to imagine. How much Carbon Dioxide is emitted between now and then will be governed by how our lifestyles change; how rapidly we adopt more efficient technologies, whether we accept legislation which limits carbon emissions - even if that means the cost of living is higher, how our family size changes etc.
Below are details about 4 possible ways the world might develop in the future. By 2100 the worlds are very different in terms of how many people there are, how wealthy they are, how much technology has advanced and, crucially, what kind of fuel they use.
World 1: Rapid rise in global wealth using mainly fossil fuels
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World 2: Rapid rise in global wealth using mainly renewable energy
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World 3: Slow rise in global wealth, increasing use of fossil fuels
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World 4: Slow rise in global wealth, not much increase in the use of fossil fuels
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What do you think will happen to carbon dioxide emissions?
In this world, the whole world developes very rapidly, and poorer countries 'catch up' with richer ones. There are rapid advances in technology. The main energy source for the world is fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) - which all produce carbon dioxide.
By 2100, the world is very prosperous, but uses a lot of carbon based fuels.
- The energy source is predominantly from fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas), so carbon dioxide emissions increase very rapidly between 2000- 2050 as the world's use of energy increases. However, rapid improvements in technology means that machines are ever more energy efficient, so after 2050 energy use, and therefore carbon emissions, begins to fall off.
- The overall concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is very high throughout the century.
- There is very rapid economic growth in both developed and developing countries, which means that people all over the world are increasingly better off.
- Increased social and cultural interactions between communities, countries etc. means that technological advances rapidly spread throughout the whole world, and there is a substantial reduction in regional differences in income (the gap between rich and poor decreases).
- World population size grows until 2050 and then falls
As a result, carbon dioxide emissions increase rapidly until 2080, and
then start to fall because of both the decreasing global population and
increasing efficiency in energy use.
This world is very similar to world 1, but instead of using fossil fuels, the world switches to renewable energy (such as wind or solar power) - maybe because of legislation or because fossil fuels become too expensive. The whole world developes very rapidly, and poorer countries 'catch up' with richer ones. There are rapid advances in technology.
By 2100, the world is very prosperous, and does not produce much carbon dioxide.
- the energy source is predominantly from non-fossil energy sources (renewable and nuclear energy). Rapid improvements in technology means that the world is increasingly less dependent on fossil fuels, so that after 2030, carbon emissions begin to fall.
- By the end of the century, this case study has the lowest concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
- There is very rapid economic growth in both developed and developing countries, which means that people all over the world are increasingly better off.
- Increased social and cultural interactions between communities, countries etc. means that technological advances rapidly spread throughout the whole world, and there is a substantial reduction in regional differences in income (the gap between rich and poor decreases).
- the number of people in the world increases until 2050 and then falls
As a result of technological improvements and decreasing world population,
carbon dioxide emissions fall rapidly after 2030.
This is the most pessimistic of the possible worlds, with an ever-increasing difference between rich and poor countries, low global wealth and a very big reliance on carbon-based fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas..).
In this world there is not much interaction between different countries and regions, and not much exchange of technology etc.
This is the only world in which, in 2100, the way we use the land (for example, cutting down rainforests) is still causing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to increase.
- The amount of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels keeps on increasing through the century.
- As a result, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is very high by the end of the century, although not quite as high as in world 1.
- The main reason more fossil fuels are being used for energy is the rapidly increasing number of people in the world, without the advances in technology and efficiency that were possible in worlds 1 & 2.
- New technologies (such as more energy efficient transport etc.) are not implemented very fast.
- The number of people in the world continues to increase very rapidly
all through the century - people tend to have less children, but still
more than would be necessary to keep the population constant.
This world is very similiar to world 3, except that the number of people in the world doesn't increase quite as fast and so the amount of fossil fuels used isn't quite as large.
This is a world where, at least at regional scales, an effort is made to protect the environment and to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor. However, on bigger, global scales, developed countries get wealthier faster than developing countries, and so the rich-poor gap gets wider. This is the only potential world where the amount of forest in the world is greater in 2100 than in 1990.
- The amount of carbon based, fossil fuels used for energy increases slowly through the century. Therefore carbon emissions and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere also carries on rising.
-Countries develop independently of each other. Both developed and developing countries get wealthier, but not as rapidly as in case studies 1 & 2. The gap between rich and poor countries widens.
- There is a wider range of new technologies (such as more energy efficient transport etc.) but they are not implemented very fast.
- The number of people in the world increases throughout the century,
but not as rapidly as in case study 3.
