Man-made climate change as important as natural variability in December’s record rains

First results of our new study together with researchers from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute show that human-induced climate change approximately doubled the chances of an exceptionally warm December in Central England, and significantly increased the chances of high rainfall further North.

Ocean conditions in the Atlantic, and possibly the strong El Niño conditions now seen in the Pacific, also increased the odds of exceptional warmth and rainfall by similar amounts, we found, while random weather variability plays also a large role.

Monthly average temperature and rainfall anomalies relative to the 1981-2010 average, from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2015/december. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v1.0.