New study: Attributing and Projecting Compound Extremes over East Asia

Seung-Ki Min, a Professor at Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH) in South Korea, delves into the attribution and projection of compound extreme events over East Asia.

Extreme climate phenomena, including droughts, heatwaves, floods, and typhoons, can have devastating social and economic consequences. When these extreme events occur simultaneously or in a continuous sequence, their impact can be even more severe. Such occurrences are referred to as compound extreme weather events, and studies have been limited due to the lack of high-resolution large-ensemble simulations.

Professor Min’s group investigated weather@home East Asia at 50 km resolution and revealed the effects of anthropogenic forcing on record-breaking heat waves in South Korea. To better capture the heavy precipitation extremes, Min and the CPDN teams have designed weather@home East Asia experiments at 25 km resolution. This new project aims to investigate compound extreme events and enhance our scientific understanding. The project comprises three experiments: (1) climate runs from the recent decade with factual forcing, (2) the same as (1) but with counterfactual conditions that exclude some or all anthropogenic forcing components, and (3) similar to (1), but future scenarios aligned with the global warming levels outlined in the Paris Agreement, following the approach of “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis, and Projected Impacts (HAPPI)” project.

The results of these fine-resolution large-ensemble simulations are expected to shed light on previously undisclosed characteristics of compound extreme events over East Asia. In particular, researchers will focus on hot-wet extremes as well as hot-dry extremes, which are expected to be linked with the changing characteristics of East Asian summer monsoon under global warming. This project will help to identify physical mechanisms behind the past and future changes in compound extremes over Asian monsoon regions.

« Back to News