Publications

Climate change and extreme weather events

Helen Hanlon


Oxfordshire Women’s Institutes and Climate Xchange, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, November 2007.
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Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events

A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil

PrintBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00034.1

Grand ensembles: Confidence, uncertainty and probability in climate change forecasts

Jim Hansen


Talk for Coal Technology Society of America, April 2005.
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A real-time Global Warming Index

K. Haustein, M. R. Allen, P. M. Forster, F. E. L. Otto, D. M. Mitchell, H. D. Matthews & D. J. Frame

Nature, Scientific Reports, November 2017

Link to paper

Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs

Haustein, K., Otto, F.E.L., Uhe, P., Schaller, N., Allen, M.R., Hermanson, L., Christidis, N., McLean, P. and Cullen, H.

Environmental Research Letters, 11(6). 064006.

Potential influences on the United Kingdom’s floods of winter 2013/14

Chris Huntingford, Terry Marsh, Adam A. Scaife, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Jamie Hannaford, Alison L. Kay, Mike Lockwood, Christel Prudhomme, Nick S. Reynard, Simon Parry, Jason A. Lowe, James A. Screen, Helen C. Ward, Malcolm Roberts, Peter A. Stott, Vicky A. Bell, Mark Bailey, Alan Jenkins, Tim Legg, Friederike E. L. Otto, Neil Massey, Nathalie Schaller, Julia Slingo & Myles R. Allen

Nature Climate Change 4, 769–777 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2314