Publications
Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases
D.A. Stainforth, T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. Martin, J.M. Murphy, C. Piani, D. Sexton, L.A. Smith, R.A. Spicer, A.J. Thorpe & M.R. Allen
Nature, 433, 403–406, January 2005. Download pdf (720 KB)
The detection and attribution of human influence on climate
D.A. Stone, M.R. Allen, P.A. Stott, P. Pall, S.-K Min, T. Nozawa & S. Yukimoto
Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 34, 1–16, 2009. The detection and attribution of human influence on climate abstract on Annual Review of Environment and Resources website.
Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.
Stott, P.A., Christidis, N., Otto, F.E.L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J.P., Jan van Oldenborgh, G., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P. and Zwiers, F.W.
WIREs Climate change, 7(1): 23-41. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.380
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
P. Stott, D. Stone & M.R. Allen
Nature, 432, 610–614, December 2004. Download pdf (220 KB)
Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise
P. Stott & J. Kettleborough
Nature, 416, 719–723, 18 April 2002. Download pdf (210 KB)
The record winter drought of 2011-2012 in the Iberian Peninsula. Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective
Ricardo Machado Trigo, Juan A. Añel, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, Luis Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, Rodrigo Castillo, Myles R. Allen, and Neil Massey
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94(9), S41-S45.
Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought: 2016 KENYAN DROUGHT
Peter Uhe, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Friederike Otto
International Journal of Climatology, November 2017
Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences
Uhe, P., Otto, F.E.L., Haustein, K., van Oldenborgh, G.J., King, A.D., Wallom, D.C.H., Allen, M.R. and Cullen, H
Geophysical Research Letters. DOI:
The Heavy Precipitation Event of December 2015 in Chennai, India
van Oldenburg, G. J., Otto, F., Haustein, K., and AchutaRao, K.
In the Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, No. 12, December 2016: Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 – From a Climate Perspective, pgs 87 – 92 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0129.1
Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events
Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Otto, F., Stott, P., Christidis, N., van Oldenborgh, G.J. and Schaller, N.
Environmental Research Letters, 11(11). 114009.
Visualisation for public-resource climate modelling
J. Walton, D. Frame & D. Stainforth
Data Visualisation 2004, 103–108, Eurographics Association, 2004. (O. Deussen, C. Hansen, D. Keim & D. Saupe eds.) Download pdf (1.6 MB)
Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review
Anna Wesselink, Andrew Juan Challinor, James Watson, Keith Beven, Icarus Allen, Helen Hanlon, Ana Lopez, Susanne Lorenz, Friederike Otto, Andy Morse, Cameron Rye, Stephane Saux-Picard, David Stainforth, Emma Suckling
Climatic Change, August 2014
doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1213-1