Publications from the CPDN project at the University of Oxford
Scientific Publications
Publications by date:
Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations. Ye, K., Woollings, T., Sparrow, S.N., Watson, P.A. and Screen, J.A., 2024. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1), p.20.
Assessing the impact of climate change on the cost of production of green ammonia from offshore wind. Hatton, L., Bañares-Alcántara, R., Sparrow, S., Lott, F. and Salmon, N., 2024. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 49, pp.635-643.
Change in cooling degree days with global mean temperature rise increasing from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Miranda, N., Lizana, J., Sparrow, S., Zachau-Walker, M., Wallom, D., Khosla, R. and McCulloch, M., 2023. Nature Sustainability, doi: 10.1038/s41893-023-01155-z.
Physically based equation representing the forcing-driven precipitation in climate models. Lee, D., Sparrow, S.N., Min, S.K., Yeh, S.W. and Allen, M.R., 2023. Environmental Research Letters, 18(9), p.094063.
Using Deep Learning for an Analysis of Atmospheric Rivers in a High‐Resolution Large Ensemble Climate Data Set. Higgins, T.B., Subramanian, A.C., Graubner, A., Kapp‐Schwoerer, L., Watson, P.A., Sparrow, S., Kashinath, K., Kim, S., Delle Monache, L. and Chapman, W., 2023. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15(4), p.e2022MS003495.
Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 circle C warmer worlds - how anthropogenic aerosols change the story. Rimi, R. H., Haustein, K., Barbour, E. J., Sparrow, S. N., Li, S., Wallom, D. C. H., & Allen, M. R. (2022). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(22), 5737-5756. doi:10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022
Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise. Calafat, F., Wahl, T., Getachew Tadesse, M., & Sparrow, S. (2022). Nature, 603, 841-845. doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04426-5
Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation. Leach, N., Watson, P. A. G., Sparrow, S. N., Wallom, D. C. H., & Sexton, D. M. H. (2022). Weather and Climate Extremes, 36. doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100419
Understanding climate risk in future energy systems: an energy-climate data hackathon. Fallon, J. C., Bloomfield, H. C., Brayshaw, D. J., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. C. H., Woollings, T., . . . Schyska, B. U. (2022). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(5), E1321-E1329. doi:10.1175/bams-d-21-0305.1
Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heat wave and Pakistan flooding. Di Capua, G., Sparrow, S., Kornhuber, K., Rousi, E., Osprey, S., Wallom, D., . . . Coumou, D. (2021). npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4. doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00211-9
Anthropogenic climate change contribution to wildfire-prone weather conditions in the Cerrado and Arc of deforestation. Li, S., Sparrow, S. N., Otto, F. E. L., Rifai, S. W., Oliveras, I., Krikken, F., . . . Wallom, D. (2021). Environmental Research Letters, 16(9). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac1e3a
Identifying local-scale meteorological conditions favorable to large fires in Brazil. Li, S., Rifai, S., Anderson, L., & Sparrow, S. (2021). Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 1(1). doi:10.1002/cli2.11
OpenIFS@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensembleweather and climate forecasting. Sparrow, S., Bowery, A., Carver, G. D., Köhler, M. O., Ollinaho, P., Pappenberger, F., . . . Weisheimer, A. (2021). Geoscientific Model Development, 14(6), 3473-3486. doi:10.5194/gmd-14-3473-2021
Larger spatial footprint of wintertime total precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. Bevacqua, E., Shepherd, T. G., Watson, P. A. G., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D., & Mitchell, D. (2021). Geophysical Research Letters, 48(8). doi:10.1029/2020gl091990
Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change. van Oldenborgh, G. J., Krikken, F., Lewis, S., Leach, N. J., Lehner, F., Saunders, K. R., . . . Otto, F. E. L. (2021). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21(3), 941-960. doi:10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021
Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: A study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought. Frame, D., Rosier, S., Noy, I., Harrington, L., Carey-Smith, T., Sparrow, S., . . . Dean, S. (2020). Climatic Change, 162, 781-797. doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02729-y
Multi-method event attribution of 2015 OND drought in subtropical southern Africa. Fuckar, N., Otto, F., Lehner, F., Wolski, P., Howard, E., & Sparrow, S. (2020). EGU General Assembly 2020. doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11903
A multi-model assessment of the changing risks of extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees’ warmer worlds. Rimi, R. H., Haustein, K., Barbour, E., Sparrow, S., Li, S., Wallom, D., & Allen, M. (2020). EGU General Assembly 2020. doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-14098
Wave-resonance fingerprint in the 2010 summer: a modelling experiment. Di Capua, G., Kornhuber, K., Sparrow, S., Rousi, E., Wallom, D., & Coumou, D. (2020). EGU General Assembly 2020. doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16003
Multi-thousand member ensemble atmospheric simulations with global 60km resolution using climateprediction.net. Watson, P., Sparrow, S., Ingram, W., Wilson, S., Marie, D., Zappa, G., . . . Allen, M. (2020). EGU General Assembly 2020. doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10895
On high precipitation in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia in February 2018. Fučkar, N., Otto, F., Lehner, F., Pinto, I., Howard, E., Sparrow, S., . . . Wallom, D. (2020). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, January 2020. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0162.1
A 1-day extreme rainfall event in Tasmania: process evaluation and long tail attribution. Tozer, C. R., Risbey, J. S., Grose, M. R., Monselesan, D. P., Squire, D. T., Black, A. S., . . . Wallom, D. (2020). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(1), S123-128. doi:10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2018.1
Anthropogenic influence on the 2018 summer warm spell in Europe: the impact of different spatio-temporal scales. Leach, N., Li, S., Sparrow, S., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Lott, F. C., Weisheimer, A., & Allen. (2020). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(S1), S41-S46. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0201.1
Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland? Undorf, S., Allen, K., Hagg, J., Li, S., Lott, F. C., Metzger, M. J., . . . Tett, S. (2020). Environmental Research Letters, 15(3). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab6999
Quantifying human impact on the 2018 summer longest heat wave in South Korea. Min, S. -K., Kim, Y. -H., Lee, S. -M., Sparrow, S., Li, S., Lott, F. C., & Stott, P. A. (2020). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(1), S103-S108. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0151.1
A pan-South-America assessment of avoided exposure to dangerous extreme precipitation by limiting to 1.5 °C warming. Li, Sihan, Otto, Friederike, Harrington, Luke, Sparrow, Sarah, Wallom, David. (2020). Environmental Research Letters. 15. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab50a2.
Parametric Sensitivity of Vegetation Dynamics in the TRIFFID Model and the Associated Uncertainty in Projected Climate Change Impacts on Western U.S. Forests. Hawkins, L. R., Rupp, D. E., McNeall, D. J., Li, S., Betts, R. A., Mote, P. W., . . . Wallom, D. (2019). Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11(8), 2787-2813. doi:10.1029/2018ms001577
Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation. Li, S., Rupp, D. E., Hawkins, L., Mote, P. W., McNeall, D., Sparrow, S. N., . . . Wettstein, J. J. (2019). Geoscientific Model Development, 12(7), 3017-3043. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019
Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation. Li, S., Rupp, D. E., Hawkins, L., Mote, P. W., McNeall, D., Sparrow, S. N., . . . Wettstein, J. J. (2019). Geoscientific Model Development , 12(7), 3017-3043. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019
Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities. Lo, Y. T. E., Mitchell, D. M., Gasparrini, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Ebi, K. L., Frumhoff, P. C., . . . Williams, G. (2019). Science Advances, 5(6). doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau4373
Evaluation of a large ensemble regional climate modelling system for extreme weather events analysis over Bangladesh. Rimi, R. H., Haustein, K., Barbour, E. J., Jones, R. G., Sparrow, S. N., & Allen, M. R. (n.d.). International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.5931
Forced summer stationary waves: the opposing effects of direct radiative forcing and sea surface warming. Baker, H., Woollings, T., Mbengue, C., Allen, M., O'Reilly, C., Shiogama, H., & Sparrow, S. (2019). Climate Dynamics, 53(7-8), 4291-4309. doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04786-1
Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. Philip, S., Sparrow, S., Kew, S. F., van der Wiel, K., Wanders, N., Singh, R., . . . van Oldenborgh, G. J. (2019). HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 23(3), 1409-1429. doi:10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019
Anthropogenic contribution to the 2017 earliest summer onset in South Korea. Min, S. K., Kim, L. H., Park, I. H., Lee, D., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. C. H., & Stone, D. (2019). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(1), S73-S77. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0096.1
Ensemble of European regional climate simulations for the winter of 2013 and 2014 from HadAM3P-RM3P Nathalie Schaller, Sarah N. Sparrow, Neil R. Massey, Andy Bowery, Jonathan Miller, Simon Wilson, David C.H. Wallom, Friederike E.L. Otto. Scientific Data 5, Article number: 180057 (2018) doi:10.1038/sdata.2018.57. Link to full paper.
A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK
Benoit P. Guillod, Richard G. Jones, Simon J. Dadson, Gemma Coxon, Gianbattista Bussi, James Freer, Alison L. Kay, Neil R. Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Myles R. Allen, and Jim W. Hall. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, January 2018.
Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming.
Luke Harrington and Friederike Otto. Environmental Research Letters, February 2018.
A real-time Global Warming Index
K. Haustein, M. R. Allen, P. M. Forster, F. E. L. Otto, D. M. Mitchell, H. D. Matthews & D. J. Frame. Nature, Scientific Reports, November 2017. Link to paper
Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna Achuta Ra, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen,Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner and Rashyd Zaaboul. Geoscientific Model Development, February 2017. Link to paper
Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought: 2016 KENYAN DROUGHT
Peter Uhe, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Friederike Otto. International Journal of Climatology, November 2017.
Climate change was an important driver of southern Australia’s warmest October on record
Black, M.T., and D. J. Karoly. [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 97, S118-S121. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0124.1
The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand
Black, M. T., Karoly, D. J., Rosier, S. M., Dean, S. M., King, A. D., Massey, N. R., Sparrow, S. N., Bowery, A., Wallom, D., Jones, R. G., Otto, F. E. L., and Allen, M. R. Geoscientific Model Development; Katlenburg-Lindau9.9 (2016): 3161-3176.
weather@home 2: validation of an improved global-regional climate modelling system
Guillod, B. P., Bowery, A., Haustein, K., Jones, R. G., Massey, N. R., Mitchell, D. M., Otto, F. E. L., Sparrow, S. N., Uhe, P., Wallom, D. C. H., Wilson, S., and Allen, M. R. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-239.
Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs
Haustein, K., Otto, F.E.L., Uhe, P., Schaller, N., Allen, M.R., Hermanson, L., Christidis, N., McLean, P. and Cullen, H. Environmental Research Letters, 11(6). 064006.
The roles of climate change and El Niño in the record low rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, Australia
Karoly, D. J., M.T. Black, M.R. Grose and A. D. King. [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 97, S127-S130. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0139.1
Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems
Mitchell, D., Davini, P., Harvey, B., Massey, N., Haustein, K., Woolings, T., Jones, R., Otto, F., Guillod, B., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. and Allen, M. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3308-z
Enabling BOINC in Infrastructure as a Service Cloud Systems
Diego Montes, Juan A. Añel, Tomás F. Pena, Peter Uhe, and David C. H. Wallom
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-193, 2016
Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States
Mote, P., Rupp, D., Li, S. Sharp, D. Otto, F., Uhe, P., Xiao, M., Lettermaier, D., Cullen, H. and Allen, M. Geophysical Research Letters: 10980-10988.
Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western US
Mote, P. W., M. R. Allen, R. G. Jones, S. Li, R. Mera, D. E. Rupp, A. Salahuddin, D. Vickers Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (97), 203-215, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1.
Climate Model Forecast Biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble
David P. Mulholland, Keith Haines, Sarah N. Sparrow and David Wallom. Clim Dyn (2016). doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3407-x
Extreme events: The art of attribution
Friederike E. L. Otto. Nature Climate Change 6,342–343(2016): doi:10.1038/nclimate2971
The attribution question
Otto, F.E.L., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Eden, J., Stott, P.A., Karoly, D.J. and Allen, M.R. Nature Climate Change, 6: 813-816.
Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate.
Hannah R. Parker, Emily Boyd, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Friederike E. L. Otto & Myles R. Allen. Climate Policy: doi:10.1080/14693062.2015.1124750
A comparison of model ensembles for attributing 2012 West African rainfall
Parker, H., Lott, F., Cornforth, R., Mitchell, D., Sparrow, S., and Wallom, D. Environmental Research Letters, 12 014019 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5386
Less warming projected during heavy winter precipitation in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada
Rupp, D. and Li, S. Int. J. Climatol.. doi:10.1002/joc.4963
Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US
Rupp, D.E., Li, S., Mote, P.W., Shell, K.M., Massey, N., Sparrow, S.N., Wallom, D.C. and Allen, M.R. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x
Influence of the ocean and greenhouse gases on severe drought likelihood in the central US in 2012
David Rupp, Sihan Li, Philip W Mote, Neil Massey, Sarah N Sparrow, David CH Wallom. Journal of Climate. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0294.1
Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts Nathalie Schaller, Alison L. Kay, Rob Lamb, Neil R. Massey, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Ian Ashpole, Andy Bowery, Susan M. Crooks, Karsten Haustein, Chris Huntingford, William J. Ingram, Richard G. Jones, Tim Legg, Jonathan Miller, Jessica Skeggs, David Wallom, Antje Weisheimer, Simon Wilson, Peter A. Stott & Myles R. Allen. Nature Climate Change (2016): doi:10.1038/nclimate2927
A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations
Sippel, S., Otto, F., Forkel, M., Allen, M., Guillod, B., Heimann, M., Reichstein, M., Seneviratne, S., Thonicke, K. and Mahecha, M. Earth System Dynamics, 7(1): 71-88.
Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences
Uhe, P., Otto, F.E.L., Haustein, K., van Oldenburgh, G.J., King, A.D., Wallom, D.C.H., Allen, M.R. and Cullen, H. Geophysical Research Letters. DOI:10.1002/2016GL069568
Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events
A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00034.1
Trends in the potential spread of seasonal climate simulations over South Africa
Kamoru A. Lawal, Dáithí A. Stone, Tolu Aina, Cameron Rye and Babatunde J. Abiodun. International Journal of Climatology, Volume 35, Issue 9, pages 2193–2209, July 2015; DOI: 10.1002/joc.4234
Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States using a superensemble from weather@home
Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Dean Vickers, Robert Mera, and Myles Allen. Journal of Climate 2015 ; e-View doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00808.1
Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley
Roberto Mera, Neil Massey, David E. Rupp, Philip Mote, Myles Allen, and Peter C. Frumhoff. Climatic Change, 2015; DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1474-3
Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western US
Philip W. Mote, Myles R. Allen, Richard G. Jones, Sihan Li, Roberto Mera, David E. Rupp, Ahmed Salahuddin and Dean Vickers. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1
Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage
M. R. Allen, Thompson, F. E. L. Otto. Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1433-z
Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications
Friederike E. L. Otto, Emily Boyd, Richard G. Jones, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Hannah R. Parker, Myles R. Allen. Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0
Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy
Friederike E. L. Otto, David J. Frame, Alexander Otto & Myles R. Allen. Nature Climate Change (2015) doi:10.1038/nclimate2716
Climate change: Attribution of extreme weather
Friederike E. L. Otto. Nature Geoscience (2015) doi:10.1038/ngeo2484
Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011
David E. Rupp, Sihan Li, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, Philip W. Mote, Myles Allen. Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 42, Issue 7, 16 April 2015, Pages 2392–2400. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062683
Stakeholder Perspectives on the Attribution of Extreme Weather Events: An Explorative Enquiry
Sebastian Sippel, Peter Walton, and Friederike E.L. Otto. Weather, Climate, and Society 2015; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00045.1
Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events
Sebastian Sippel, Dann Mitchell, Mitchell T. Black, Andrea J. Dittus, Luke Harrington, Nathalie Schaller, Friederike E.L. Otto. Weather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.004
Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming.
Sippel, S., Zeischler, J., Heimann, M., Otto, F.E.L., Peters, J. and Mahecha, M.D. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(20): doi 10.1002/2015GL066307
Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events
Stott, P.A., Christidis, N., Otto, F.E.L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J.P., Jan van Oldenborgh, G., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P. and Zwiers, F.W. WIREs Climate change, 7(1): 23-41. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.380
Potential influences on the United Kingdom’s floods of winter 2013/14
Chris Huntingford, Terry Marsh, Adam A. Scaife, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Jamie Hannaford, Alison L. Kay, Mike Lockwood, Christel Prudhomme, Nick S. Reynard, Simon Parry, Jason A. Lowe, James A. Screen, Helen C. Ward, Malcolm Roberts, Peter A. Stott, Vicky A. Bell, Mark Bailey, Alan Jenkins, Tim Legg, Friederike E. L. Otto, Neil Massey, Nathalie Schaller, Julia Slingo & Myles R. Allen. Nature Climate Change 4, 769–777 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2314
weather@home – development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution
Neil Massey, Richard Jones, Friederike Otto, Tolu Aina, Simon Wilson, James Murphy, David Hassell, Hiro Yamazaki and Myles Allen. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1002/qj.2455
Beyond climatological extremes – assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate
Sippel, S., Otto, F. E. L. Climatic Change (2014) doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1153-9.
Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade
Friederike Otto, Suzanne Rosier, Myles Allen, Neil Massey, Cameron Rye and Jara Imbers Quintana. Climatic Change (2014) DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1095-2
Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review
Anna Wesselink, Andrew Juan Challinor, James Watson, Keith Beven, Icarus Allen, Helen Hanlon, Ana Lopez, Susanne Lorenz, Friederike Otto, Andy Morse, Cameron Rye, Stephane Saux-Picard, David Stainforth, Emma Suckling. Climatic Change, August 2014, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1213-1
Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests
Otto FEL, Jones RG, Halladay K, Allen MR. Phil Trans R Soc B, 368, 2013. Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests
Human Influence on the probability of low precipitation in the central United States in 2012
David E. Rupp, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Friederike E.L. Otto, Myles R. Allen. [in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S2-S6, 2013.
The use of very large atmospheric model ensemble to assess potential anthropogenic influence on the UK summer 2012 high rainfall totals
Sarah Sparrow, Chris Huntingford, Neil Massey, Myles Allen. [in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S36-S41, 2013.
The record winter drought of 2011-2012 in the Iberian Peninsula. Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective
Ricardo Machado Trigo, Juan A. Añel, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, Luis Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, Rodrigo Castillo, Myles R. Allen, and Neil Massey. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94(9), S41-S45.
The attribution of warm November and cold December Central England temperatures
N. Massey, T. Aina, C. Rye, F.E.L. Otto, S. Wilson, R.G. Jones, & M.R. Allen. [in: Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 7, 2012
Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave
F.E.L. Otto, N. Massey, G.J. van Oldenborgh, R.G. Jones & M.R. Allen. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L04702, 2012. Doi:10.1029/2011GL050422.
Effectiveness of stratospheric solar-radiation management as a function of climate sensitivity
K. Ricke, D. Rowlands, W. Ingram, D. Keith & M. Granger Morgan. Nature Climate Change, 2, 92–96, 2012. Doi:10.1038/nclimate1328.
Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble
D.J. Rowlands, D.J. Frame, D. Ackerley, T. Aina, B.B.B. Booth, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, C.E. Forest, B.S. Grandey, E. Gryspeerdt, E.J. Highwood, W.J. Ingram, S. Knight, A. Lopez, N. Massey, F. McNamara, N. Meinshausen, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, B.M. Sanderson, L.A. Smith, D.A. Stone, M. Thurston, K. Yamazaki, H. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen. Nature Geoscience, 2012. Doi:10.1038/NGEO1430.
Did human influence on climate make the 2011 Texas drought more probable?
D.E. Rupp, P.W. Mote, N. Massey, C.J. Rye, R. Jones & M.R. Allen. [in Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 93, 1052–1054, 2012. 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1.
Attribution of Autumn/Winter 2000 flood risk in England to anthropogenic climate change: a catchment-based study
A.L. Kay, S.M. Crooks, P. Pall, & D.A. Stone. Journal of Hydrology, 406, 97–112, 2011.
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in Autumn 2000
P. Pall, T. Aina, D. Stone, P. Stott, T. Nozawa, A. Hilberts, D. Lohmann & M.R. Allen. Nature, 470, 382–385, 2011.
Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment
H. Fowler, D. Cooley, S. Sain & M. Thurston. Extremes, 13 (2) 241–267, 2010. Doi:10.1007/s10687-010-0101-y.
Regional climate response to solar-radiation management
K. Ricke, M. Granger Morgan & M.R. Allen. Nature Geoscience, 3, 537–541, 2010. Doi: 10.1038/ngeo915.
Estimating uncertainties in global and regional climate change projections using a multi-thousand member climate model ensemble
Derek Rosendahl & David Karoly. Poster from 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change at the 90th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, USA, January, 2010.
Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs
B. Sanderson, K. Shell & W. Ingram. Climate Dynamics, 35, 1219–1236, December 2010.
Quantifying the effects of perturbing the physics of an interactive sulfur scheme using an ensemble of GCMs on the climateprediction.net platform
D. Ackerley, E.J. Highwood & D.J. Frame. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 114, D01203, January 2009.
Beware of what you wish for in Copenhagen
Myles Allen. 16 December, 2009.
The case for mandatory sequestration
M.R. Allen, D. Frame & C. Manson. Nature Geoscience 2, 813–814, December 2009.
Volunteer computing in the Earth Sciences
Carl Christensen. Institute of Physics, London, 10 September, 2009.
The climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble
D.J. Frame, T. Aina, C.M. Christensen, N. E. Fall, S.H.E. Knight, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, K. Yamazaki, Y. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A, 367, 855–870, 2009.
From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts: a case study of water resource management in the South West of England
A. Lopez, F. Fung, M. New, G. Watts, A. Weston & R. Wilby. Water Resources Research, 45, W08419, 2009.
Estimating uncertainties in global and regional climate change projections using a large multi-member climate model ensemble
Derek Rosendahl & David Karoly. Poster for Seventh NOAA Annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, USA, March, 2009.
The detection and attribution of human influence on climate
D.A. Stone, M.R. Allen, P.A. Stott, P. Pall, S.-K Min, T. Nozawa & S. Yukimoto. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 34, 1–16, 2009
Energy and climate: understanding climate change
Myles Allen. Saïd Business School, Oxford, January 2008.
What can be said about future climate? Quantifying uncertainty in multi-decade climate forecasting
Myles Allen. Harvard University, February 2008.
Comment on heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system by S. E. Schwartz
R. Knutti, S. Krähenmann, D.J. Frame & M.R. Allen. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, 2008. D15103, doi:10.1029/2007JD009473.
Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the role of subgrid-scale processes
B. Sanderson, R. Knutti, T. Aina, C. Christensen, N. Faull, D. Frame, W. Ingram, C. Piani, D. Stainforth, D. Stone & M. Allen. Journal of Climate, 21, 2384–2400, June 2008.
Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations
B. Sanderson, C. Piani, W.J. Ingram, D.A. Stone & M.R. Allen. Climate Dynamics, 30, 175–190, February 2008.
A North African perspective on climate change
Myles Allen. October 2007.
What can be said about 21st century climate?
Myles Allen. June 2007.
Call off the quest
M.R. Allen & D. Frame. Science, 26, 582–583, October 2007. Doi:10.1126/science.1149988.
Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change
M. Collins. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 365, 1471–2962, 2007.
Predicting climate change through volunteer computing
Nick Faull & Milo Thurston. Oxford University Computing Services, February 2007.
Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems
D. Frame, N. Faull, M. Joshi & M.R. Allen. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 15 August 2007. Doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2069.
Introduction and evaluation of martlet, a scientific workflow language for abstracted parallelisation
D. Goodman. Proceedings of the Sixteenth International World Wide Web Conference, 983–982, May 2007.
Climate change and extreme weather events
Helen Hanlon. Oxfordshire Women’s Institutes and Climate Xchange, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, November 2007.
Association of parameter, software and hardware variation with large scale behavior across 57,000 climate models
C.G. Knight, S.H.E. Knight, N. Massey, T. Aina, C. Christensen, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, A. Martin, S. Pascoe, B. Sanderson, D.A. Stainforth & M.R. Allen. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104 (30), 12259–12264 July 2007. Doi:10.1073/pnas.0608144104.
Climate change in Libya 1957 to 2057
Rachael McDonald. November 2007.
Challenges in using probabilistic climate change information for impact assessments: an example from the water sector
M. New, A. Lopez, S. Dessai & R. Wilby. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 2117–2131, 2007.
Climateprediction.net data curation
Milo Thurston. Oxford University e-Research Centre’s Digital Curation Centre meeting, February 2007.
Puzzles arising from climateprediction.net
Myles Allen. Newcastle, March 2006.
Predicting climate change
Dave Frame. OUCE (Oxford University Centre for the Environment), Oxford, January 2006.
Martlet: a scientific work-flow language for abstracted parallelisation
D. Goodman. Proceedings of UK e-science All Hands meeting, Nottingham, UK, September 2006.
Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries
G.C. Hegerl, T.J. Crowley, W.T. Hyde & D.J. Frame. Nature, 440, 1029–1032, April 2006.
Simulate the climate of 1920 to 2080 on your home computer
Sylvia Knight. Talk given to students at Natural History Museum, Stockholm, Sweden, March 2006.
Climateprediction.net – predicting 21st century climate
Sylvia Knight. Talk to teachers at Natural History Museum, Stockholm, Sweden, March 2006.
Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature
R. Knutti, G.A. Meehl, M.R.Allen & D.A. Stainforth. Journal of Climate, 19 (17), 4224–4233, 2006.
Data access and analysis with distributed federated data servers in climateprediction.net
N. Massey, T. Aina, M. Allen, C. Christensen, D. Frame, D. Goodman, J. Kettleborough, A. Martin, S. Pascoe & D. Stainforth. Advances in Geosciences, 8, 49–56, 2006.
Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming
P. Pall, M.R. Allen & D.A. Stone. Climate Dynamics, 23 (4), 351–363, August 2006.
Avoiding dangerous climate change
H.J. Schellnhuber (Chief Ed.), W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley, & G. Yohe (Eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2006.
Public resource distributed modelling
Dave Stainforth. Stockholm, Sweden, March 2006.
The spectre of liability
Myles Allen. Talk at the Climate Change Solutions meeting, Birmingham, May 2005.
Model error in weather and climate forecasting
Myles Allen. Presentation to Reading University, May 2005.
Probability in attributing and predicting climate change
Myles Allen. British Council, Leipzig, April 2005.
Is there a safe GHG stabilisation level? Results from climateprediction.net
Myles Allen. Report to NERC council, Swindon, April 2005.
Attribution of climate change: the spectre of liability
Myles Allen. Presentation to Pretorial Meeting, October 2005.
The challenge of volunteer computing with lengthy climate modelling simulations
C. Christensen, T. Aina & D. Stainforth. Proceedings of the 1st IEEE Conference on e-Science and Grid Computing, Melbourne, Australia, 5 to 8 December 2005.
Climate change
Sam Dean. Cafe Scientifique, Cuba, April 2005.
climateprediction.net
Dave Frame. NIWA (National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research), New Zealand, March 2005.
Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions
D. J. Frame, B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, & M. R. Allen. Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L09702, May 2005.
Climate prediction and its uncertainties
Dave Frame. School of Geographical Science, Bristol, October 2005.
Predicting and attributing climate change
Dave Frame. British Council, Warsaw, Poland, September 2005.
Grand ensembles: Confidence, uncertainty and probability in climate change forecasts
Jim Hansen. Talk for Coal Technology Society of America, April 2005.
Climate change education and research in the UK
Sylvia Knight. Al Farabi National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan, October 2005.
Climateprediction.net: Communicating climate prediction
Sylvia Knight. Royal Meteorological Society, September 2005.
Attributing and predicting climate change
Sylvia Knight. British Council, Bonn, August 2005.
Predicting future climate change
Sylvia Knight. Kazakh-British Technical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan. October 2005.
climateprediction.net – help predict 21st century climate
Sylvia Knight. Talk for the Association for Science Education, January 2005.
Attributing and predicting climate change
Sylvia Knight. Institute of Biophysics, Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, October 2005.
Attributing and predicting future climate change
Sylvia Knight. Krasnoyarsk State Pedagogical University, Siberia, October 2005.
climateprediction.net – predicting 21st century climate
Sylvia Knight. Talk for the Geography Association, March 2005.
Observational constraints on future climate: distinguishing robust from model-dependent statements of uncertainty in climate forecasting
Myles Allen. Extended abstract of a talk for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Workshop on Uncertainty and Risk, Maynooth, Ireland, 12 to 14 May, 2004.
Human influence on weather risk: the 2003 European heat wave
Myles Allen. COP10, Buenos Aires, December, 2004.
From the sun to the earth: climate 1879 to 2129
Myles Allen. Presentation at Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford, July 2004.
The Blame Game – who will pay for the damaging consequences of climate change?
M.R. Allen & R. Lord. Nature, 432, 551–552, December 2004.
climateprediction.net – progress so far…
Sylvia Knight. NIWA (National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research), New Zealand, November 2004.
Do-it-yourself climate prediction
Sylvia Knight. Video conference with 7 schools in New Zealand, November 2004.
Do-it-yourself climate prediction
Sylvia Knight. Talk to Slough Grammar School, December 2004.
Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
J. Murphy, D. Sexton, D. Barnett, G. Jones, M. Webb, M. Collins & D. Stainforth. Nature, 430, 768–772, August 2004. Download pdf (580 KB)
Environmental online communication
A. Scharl (Ed.). Advanced Information and Knowledge Processing Series, 2004 Springer London, ISBN: 1-85233-783-4. Chapter 12: climateprediction.net: a global community for research in climate physics on EcoResearch.net website.
Security principles for public-resource modelling research
D. Stainforth, A. Martin, A. Simpson, C. Christensen, J. Kettleborough, T. Aina & M.R. Allen. Proceedings of the 13th IEEE Conference on Enabling Grid Technologies (ENTGRID), Modena, Italy, June 2004.
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
P. Stott, D. Stone & M.R. Allen. Nature, 432, 610–614, December 2004.
Visualisation for public-resource climate modelling
J. Walton, D. Frame & D. Stainforth. Data Visualisation 2004, 103–108, Eurographics Association, 2004. (O. Deussen, C. Hansen, D. Keim & D. Saupe eds.).
Will we ever be able to attribute individual weather events to anthropogenic climate change?
Myles Allen. Santiago de Compostela, July, 2003.
Probability and climate change
Myles Allen. Department of Trade and Industry UK/Russia Climate Workshop, October, 2003.
How can we (in)validate a probabilistic forecast?
Myles Allen. Talk at the European Geophysical Society, Nice, April 2003.
Physics Today lecture
Dave Frame. Lecture to Oxford undergraduates, January, 2003.
Presentation to CosmoCaixa
Myles Allen. Madrid, Spain, March 2003.
Possible or probable?
M.R. Allen. Nature, 425, 242, September 2003.
Liability for climate change
M.R. Allen. Nature, 421, 891–892, February 2003. Liability for climate change
Model error in weather and climate forecasting
M.R. Allen, J. Kettleborough & D. Stainforth. Proceedings of the 2002 ECMWF Predictability Seminar, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK, 275–294.
Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
M.R. Allen, W. Ingram & D. Stainforth. Nature Insight article, Nature, 419, 224–232, 12 September 2002.
How far ahead could we predict El Nino?
M. Collins, D. Frame, B. Sinha & C. Wilson. Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 10:1492, 31 May 2002.
Climate predictability on Interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem
M. Collins. Climate Dynamics, 19 (8), 671–692, 18 March 2002.
Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability
M. Collins & M.R. Allen. Journal of Climate, 15 (21), 3104–3109, November 2002.
Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles
R. Knutti, T. Stocker, F. Joos & G.-K. Plattner. Nature 416, 18 April 2002.
Climateprediction.net: design principles for public resource modelling research
D. Stainforth, J. Kettleborough, A. Martin, A. Simpson, R. Gillis, A. Akkas, R. Gault, M. Collins, D. Gavaghan & M. Allen. Proceedings of 14th IASTED conference on parallel and distributed computing systems, 2002.
Climateprediction.com: Distributed computing for public interest modelling research
D. Stainforth, J. Kettleborough, M.R. Allen, M. Collins, & A. Heaps. Computing in Science and Engineering, 4 (3), 2002.
Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise
P. Stott & J. Kettleborough. Nature, 416, 719–723, 18 April 2002.
Constraining climate model properties using optimal fingerprint detection methods
C. Forest, M.R. Allen, A. Sokolov & P. Stone. Climate Dynamics, 18, 277–295, 2001. Doi 10.1007/s003820100175.
Casino-21: Climate Simulation of the 21st Century
J. Hansen, M.R. Allen, D. Stainforth, A. Heaps & P. Stott. World Resource Review, 13 (2), 187–189, 2001.
Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change
M.R. Allen, P. Stott, J. Mitchell, R. Schnur & T. Delworth. Nature, 407, 617–620, October 2000.
Do it yourself climate prediction
M. Allen. Nature, 401, 642, October 1999.