Results from the BBC climate change experiment
The first results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment have been published in Nature Geoscience. The experiment was the first multi-thousand member ensemble of climate simulations using a complex climate model, and answers some of the uncertainties that previous forecasts over-looked. Results suggest that global warming of 3 degrees Celsius by 2050 is as equally likely as a rise of 1.4 degrees (relative to the 1961 to 1990 average). Simulations that matched observed temperature changes over the last 50 years were used to produce the figures.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at the current rate, results suggest that the world is very likely to cross the ‘2 degrees barrier’ at some point this century, and that those planning for the impacts of climate change need to consider the possibility of warming of up to 3 degrees (above the 1961 to 1990 average) by 2050, even on a mid-range emission scenario. This is a faster rate of warming than most other models predict.
We would like to thank all the participants involved in the BBC climate change experiment for their continued support to the project!
- Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble – article in Nature Geoscience
The results were reported across the media:
- Temperatures could rise by 3C by 2050, models suggest, BBC News online
- 10,000 climate models predict significant global temperature rise, Wired.co.uk, Duncan Geere
- Earth warming faster than expected, ScienceNOW (US), Sid Perkins
- Study: Global temperatures could rise 5 degrees by 2050, USA Today online
- Study: Global temps may jump 5 degrees by 2050, Azcentral.com
- Temperatures ‘could rise by 3C by 2050’, News Track India
- Temperatures ‘could rise by 3°C by 2050’, The Hindu (India)
- Scientists issue emission warning, Morning Star
- Fears of 3C global warming by 2050, Daily Express online
- Fears of 3C global warming by 2050, Evening Standard online
- IRI News