BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Climate change: The big emitters 
Climate change: The big emitters 
The future of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change is largely in the hands of 
the world's biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. BBC News Online 
looks at how much they emit, what are they doing about it and where they stand 
on Kyoto. 


US 
The US emits more, absolutely and per head, than any other country - although it 
also produces more wealth. When Kyoto was agreed, the US signed and committed to 
reducing its emissions by 6%. But since then it has pulled out of the agreement 
and its carbon dioxide emissions have increased to more than 15% above 1990 
levels. 
For the agreement to become a legally binding treaty, it must be ratified by 
countries which together were responsible for a at least 55% of the total 1990 
emissions reported by the industrialised countries and emerging economies which 
made commitments to reduce their emissions under the protocol. 
As the US accounted for 36.1% of those emissions, this 55% target is much harder 
to achieve without its participation. 
President George W Bush said in March 2001 that the US would not ratify Kyoto 
because he thought it would damage the US economy and because it did not yet 
require developing countries to cut their emissions. 
He says he backs improvements in energy efficiency through voluntary emissions 
reductions - rather than imposed targets - and through the development of 
cleaner technologies. 
European Union 
All 15 European Union states ratified the Kyoto deal in May 2002. The protocol's 
most enthusiastic supporter, the EU has pressured countries such as Russia, 
Japan and Canada to ratify Kyoto in the hope that the critical threshold of 
commitment will be obtained without the US. 
The EU has continually argued for a rigorous application of Kyoto, wanting to 
limit the use of so-called "flexibility mechanisms" which allow countries to 
partially meet their emissions reduction targets by paying for improvements in 
other countries. 
The EU has also opposed widespread use of forests and other carbon "sinks" to 
absorb pollution - but gave substantial ground on the issue at talks in Bonn in 
2001. 
However, despite its tough stance on Kyoto, the EU is some way off its own 
target. It pledged to bring total greenhouse gas emissions to 8% below 1990s 
levels by 2008-2012, but by 2002 they had dropped only 2.9% - and CO2 emissions 
had risen slightly. Only four EU countries are on track to achieve their own 
targets. 
China 
China is the world's second biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, but as a 
developing country is not yet required to reduce its emissions. 
With China accounting for a fifth of the world's population, increases in its 
emissions could dwarf any cuts made by the industrialised countries. 
The average Chinese person consumes only 10-15% of the energy an average US 
citizen uses, but with the economy developing at high speed many analysts expect 
China's total emissions to overtake America's by mid-century. 
Fossil fuels play a major role - China is the world's biggest coal producer and 
oil consumption has doubled in the last 20 years. The country faced power cuts 
in 2004 as soaring growth outstripped electricity generation. 
However, although no UN figures are available, analysts say there is evidence to 
back up Chinese claims of a reduction in emissions during the late 1990s, 
largely due to increased efficiency and slower economic growth. 
China's leaders recognise that climate change could devastate their society and 
ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. In 2004 Beijing announced plans to generate 
10% of its power from renewable sources by 2010. 
But it is far from clear whether the country would ever agree to 
internationally-imposed emissions restrictions. 
Russia 
Russia is in the critical position of being the country whose ratification would 
provide enough support for the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force. It said in 
2002 that it planned to ratify the treaty, but there has been continued 
uncertainty about when and whether it will do so. 
Russia has signed the protocol and committed to cutting emissions. But its 
economy has shrunk so drastically since 1990 that industrial activity has 
dropped, leaving emissions reduced by about 35% and well below the level allowed 
under Kyoto. 
In the short-term, Russia stands to gain billions of dollars through emissions 
trading - selling its unused emissions entitlement to developed countries which 
want to emit more than the protocol allows them to. 
It says the money would be used for energy efficiency projects. Ratifying the 
protocol and committing to keep emissions low could, however, bring Russia 
economic costs in the longer term. 
Japan 
A major world economic power, Japan is a leading member of Kyoto, committed to 
cutting emissions. It was responsible for 8.5% of emissions in 1990 and its 
support for the agreement is critical in the absence of US participation. 
Although previously reluctant to ratify the protocol unless the US also 
committed, Japan ratified it in June 2002. 
It committed to reduce emissions by 6% from 1990 levels, but 2002 figures showed 
total greenhouse gas emissions had risen 11% above the baseline figure. 
The country recognises that its economy could benefit from the Kyoto agreement, 
as Japanese companies could capture markets for new, clean technology. 
India 
Developing countries like India are not obliged to make any cuts in greenhouse 
emissions under Kyoto. But as they raise living standards their emissions will 
increase. India's emissions are estimated to have risen by more than 50% in the 
1990s, although the country has only submitted emissions figures to the UN for 
one year, 1994. 
India recognises that many of its one billion people will be vulnerable to the 
effects of climate change and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in August 2002. 
But with India's economy and population, like China's, continuing to grow, it is 
clear that the thorny issue of developing country emissions commitments will 
have to be tackled soon in future rounds of negotiations. 
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/sci/tech/3143798.stm

Published: 2004/07/23 17:28:07 GMT

© BBC MMIV