Publications
Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions
D. J. Frame, B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, & M. R. Allen
Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L09702, May 2005. Download pdf (440 KB)
A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK
Benoit P. Guillod, Richard G. Jones, Simon J. Dadson, Gemma Coxon, Gianbattista Bussi, James Freer, Alison L. Kay, Neil R. Massey1, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Myles R. Allen, and Jim W. Hall
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, January 2018
Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events
A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00034.1
Casino-21: Climate Simulation of the 21st Century
J. Hansen, M.R. Allen, D. Stainforth, A. Heaps & P. Stott
World Resource Review, 13 (2), 187–189, 2001. Casino-21: Climate Simulation of the 21st Century (110 KB)
Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs
Haustein, K., Otto, F.E.L., Uhe, P., Schaller, N., Allen, M.R., Hermanson, L., Christidis, N., McLean, P. and Cullen, H.
Environmental Research Letters, 11(6). 064006.
Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries
G.C. Hegerl, T.J. Crowley, W.T. Hyde & D.J. Frame
Nature, 440, 1029–1032, April 2006. Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries abstract on Nature website.
Potential influences on the United Kingdom’s floods of winter 2013/14
Chris Huntingford, Terry Marsh, Adam A. Scaife, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Jamie Hannaford, Alison L. Kay, Mike Lockwood, Christel Prudhomme, Nick S. Reynard, Simon Parry, Jason A. Lowe, James A. Screen, Helen C. Ward, Malcolm Roberts, Peter A. Stott, Vicky A. Bell, Mark Bailey, Alan Jenkins, Tim Legg, Friederike E. L. Otto, Neil Massey, Nathalie Schaller, Julia Slingo & Myles R. Allen
Nature Climate Change 4, 769–777 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2314
Trends in the potential spread of seasonal climate simulations over South Africa
Kamoru A. Lawal, Dáithí A. Stone, Tolu Aina, Cameron Rye and Babatunde J. Abiodun
International Journal of Climatology, Volume 35, Issue 9, pages 2193–2209, July 2015; DOI: 10.1002/joc.4234
The roles of climate change and El Niño in the record low rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, Australia
Karoly, D. J., M.T. Black, M.R. Grose and A. D. King
[in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 97, S127-S130. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0139.1
Attribution of Autumn/Winter 2000 flood risk in England to anthropogenic climate change: a catchment-based study
A.L. Kay, S.M. Crooks, P. Pall, & D.A. Stone
Journal of Hydrology, 406, 97–112, 2011. Download pdf (2.1 MB)
Association of parameter, software and hardware variation with large scale behavior across 57,000 climate models
C.G. Knight, S.H.E. Knight, N. Massey, T. Aina, C. Christensen, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, A. Martin, S. Pascoe, B. Sanderson, D.A. Stainforth & M.R. Allen
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104 (30), 12259–12264 July 2007. Doi:10.1073/pnas.0608144104. Download pdf (140 KB)
Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature
R. Knutti, G.A. Meehl, M.R.Allen & D.A. Stainforth
Journal of Climate, 19 (17), 4224–4233, 2006. Download pdf (810 KB)
Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles
R. Knutti, T. Stocker, F. Joos & G.-K. Plattner
Nature 416, 18 April 2002. Download pdf (200 KB)
Comment on heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system by S. E. Schwartz
R. Knutti, S. Krähenmann, D.J. Frame & M.R. Allen
Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, 2008. D15103, doi:10.1029/2007JD009473. Download pdf (190 KB)
Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States using a superensemble from weather@home
Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Dean Vickers, Robert Mera, and Myles Allen
Journal of Climate 2015 ; e-View doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00808.1
From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts: a case study of water resource management in the South West of England
A. Lopez, F. Fung, M. New, G. Watts, A. Weston & R. Wilby
Water Resources Research, 45, W08419, 2009. From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts: a case study of water resource management in the South West of England abstract from Wiley online library.
The attribution of warm November and cold December Central England temperatures
N. Massey, T. Aina, C. Rye, F.E.L. Otto, S. Wilson, R.G. Jones, & M.R. Allen
[in: Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 7, 2012. Download pdf (7.4 MB)
weather@home – development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution
Neil Massey, Richard Jones, Friederike Otto, Tolu Aina, Simon Wilson, James Murphy, David Hassell, Hiro Yamazaki and Myles Allen
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2455
Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley
Roberto Mera, Neil Massey, David E. Rupp, Philip Mote, Myles Allen, and Peter C. Frumhoff
Climatic Change, 2015; DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1474-3
Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems
Mitchell, D., Davini, P., Harvey, B., Massey, N., Haustein, K., Woolings, T., Jones, R., Otto, F., Guillod, B., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. and Allen, M
Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3308-z