Publications
Beyond climatological extremes – assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate
Sippel, S., Otto, F. E. L.
Climatic Change (2014) doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1153-9.
Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests
Otto FEL, Jones RG, Halladay K, Allen MR
Phil Trans R Soc B, 368, 2013. Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests
Extreme events: The art of attribution
Friederike E. L. Otto
Nature Climate Change6,342–343doi:10.1038/nclimate2971
Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage
Allen Thompson, Friederike E. L. Otto
Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1433-z
Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade
Friederike Otto, Suzanne Rosier, Myles Allen, Neil Massey, Cameron Rye and Jara Imbers Quintana
Climatic Change (2014) DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1095-2
Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications
Friederike E. L. Otto, Emily Boyd, Richard G. Jones, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Hannah R. Parker, Myles R. Allen
Climatic Change, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0
Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy
Friederike E. L. Otto, David J. Frame, Alexander Otto & Myles R. Allen
Nature Climate Change (2015) doi:10.1038/nclimate2716
Climate change: Attribution of extreme weather
Friederike E. L. Otto
Nature Geoscience (2015) doi:10.1038/ngeo2484
The attribution question
Otto, F.E.L., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Eden, J., Stott, P.A., Karoly, D.J. and Allen, M.R.
Nature Climate Change, 6: 813-816.
Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming
Luke Harrington and Friederike Otto
Environmental Research Letters, February 2018
Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming
P. Pall, M.R. Allen & D.A. Stone
Climate Dynamics, 23 (4), 351–363, August 2006. Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming abstract on Springer Link website.
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in Autumn 2000
P. Pall, T. Aina, D. Stone, P. Stott, T. Nozawa, A. Hilberts, D. Lohmann & M.R. Allen
Nature, 470, 382–385, 2011. Download pdf (1.4 MB)
Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate.
Hannah R. Parker, Emily Boyd, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Friederike E. L. Otto & Myles R. Allen
Climate Policy: doi:10.1080/14693062.2015.1124750
A comparison of model ensembles for attributing 2012 West African rainfall,
Parker, H., Lott, F., Cornforth, R., Mitchell, D., Sparrow, S., and Wallom, D
Environmental Research Letters, 12 014019 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5386
Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations
C. Piani, D. J. Frame, D. A. Stainforth & M. R. Allen
Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L23825, December 2005. Download pdf (730 KB)
Effectiveness of stratospheric solar-radiation management as a function of climate sensitivity
K. Ricke, D. Rowlands, W. Ingram, D. Keith & M. Granger Morgan
Nature Climate Change, 2, 92–96, 2012. Doi:10.1038/nclimate1328. Effectiveness of stratospheric solar-radiation management as a function of climate sensitivity abstract on Nature Climate Change website.
Regional climate response to solar-radiation management
K. Ricke, M. Granger Morgan & M.R. Allen
Nature Geoscience, 3, 537–541, 2010. Doi: 10.1038/ngeo915. Regional climate response to solar-radiation management abstract on Nature Geoscience website.
Estimating uncertainties in global and regional climate change projections using a multi-thousand member climate model ensemble
Derek Rosendahl & David Karoly
Poster from 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change at the 90th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, USA, January, 2010.
Download PDF.
Estimating uncertainties in global and regional climate change projections using a large multi-member climate model ensemble
Derek Rosendahl & David Karoly
Poster for Seventh NOAA Annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, USA, March, 2009.
Download pdf (1 MB)
Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble
D.J. Rowlands, D.J. Frame, D. Ackerley, T. Aina, B.B.B. Booth, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, C.E. Forest, B.S. Grandey, E. Gryspeerdt, E.J. Highwood, W.J. Ingram, S. Knight, A. Lopez, N. Massey, F. McNamara, N. Meinshausen, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, B.M. Sanderson, L.A. Smith, D.A. Stone, M. Thurston, K. Yamazaki, H. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen
Nature Geoscience, 2012. Doi:10.1038/NGEO1430. Download pdf (1.3 MB). Supplementary information (pdf, 2.4 MB)